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Today's AFL Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Game

Free AFL picks across moneyline, line, totals and player props. Every pick shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

2 games coming up, and the first 2 picks are free

Best AFL bet today: Karl Worner Over 17.5 Disposals (Fremantle) at -120, high confidence. For Karl Worner to go over 17.5 disposals tonight, he just needs to stay active on the field. 2 games on the board.

The one we'd back first · Geelong Cats v Fremantle Dockers
Karl Worner Over 17.5 Disposals (Fremantle) -120
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win74.1%
$50 returns$91.50
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each game below
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Karl Worner Over 17.5 Disposals (Fremantle) High74% chance -120
Adelaide Crows v Brisbane LionsADE v BRI Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions: Brisbane Lions Spread Q3 -5.5 High74% chance -116
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Disposals 12.5 High72% chance
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Marks 2.5 High81% chance
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Spread 10.5 High72% chance
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Disposals 18.5 High99% chance
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Goals 0.5 High75% chance
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Disposals 9.5 High92% chance
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Disposals 14.5 High70% chance
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Disposals 9.5 High71% chance
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Disposals 15.5 High83% chance
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE Disposals 16.5 High80% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
127 more picks on the board
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AFLGEE vs. FRE 2026-09-11 10:10
Full preview: Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers →
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Karl Worner Over 17.5 Disposals (Fremantle)
Chance to win 74.1%
The price says 54.6%
Best price -120

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Karl Worner Over 17.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Karl Worner to go over 17.5 disposals tonight, he just needs to stay active on the field. Our numbers show he has a good chance to hit this mark, as he's been getting plenty of opportunities lately. He's been involved in more plays than usual, which is a promising sign for this bet. The Fremantle Dockers are facing the Geelong Cats, and both teams are closely matched. This could make it tricky, as a tough game might limit Worner's chances. However, if he stays on his game, he should be able to rack up those disposals.

Oisin Mullin Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Patrick Voss Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Spread 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Max Holmes Disposals 18.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Oliver Wiltshire Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Connor O'Sullivan Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Nathan O'Driscoll Disposals 14.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Patrick Voss Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Tom Atkins Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Lawson Humphries Disposals 16.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Josh Treacy Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Matthew Johnson Disposals 14.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Lawson Humphries Kicks 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Shai Bolton Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Sam De Koning Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Shai Bolton Disposals 18.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Connor O'Sullivan Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Max Holmes Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Max Holmes Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Mark O'Connor Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Josh Treacy Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Mark O'Connor Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Corey Wagner Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Isaiah Dudley Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Gryan Miers Tackles 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Murphy Reid Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Tom Stewart Disposals 18.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Spread Q3 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Isaiah Dudley Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Spread Q4 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Murphy Reid Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Mark Blicavs Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Matthew Johnson Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Karl Worner Fantasy 69.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Matthew Johnson Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Tanner Bruhn Disposals 17.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Oliver Dempsey Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Zach Guthrie Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Michael Frederick Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Bailey Smith Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Max Holmes Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Caleb Serong Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Team Total Points H1 45.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Karl Worner Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Lawson Humphries Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Oscar McDonald Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Tanner Bruhn Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Oisin Mullin Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Isaiah Dudley Tackles 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Max Holmes Clearances 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Gryan Miers Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Spread Q2 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Zach Guthrie Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Patrick Voss Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Oliver Wiltshire Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Judd McVee Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Jeremy Cameron Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Shai Bolton Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Alex Pearce Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Bailey Smith Clearances 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Max Holmes Tackles 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Judd McVee Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Andrew Brayshaw Disposals 22.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Andrew Brayshaw Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Tanner Bruhn Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Karl Worner Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Mark Blicavs Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Corey Wagner Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Oliver Dempsey Disposals 17.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Spread 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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AFLADE vs. BRI 2026-09-12 09:35
Full preview: Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions →
Show Picks
Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions: Brisbane Lions Spread Q3 -5.5
Chance to win 73.6%
The price says 53.8%
Best price -116

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Brisbane Lions -5.5 Spread Q3 (-116)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Brisbane Lions are playing at home against the Adelaide Crows, which usually gives them a boost. They have a solid chance of covering the spread of -5.5 in the third quarter. With the Lions having a good rest advantage of over 13 days, they should be fresh and ready to go. However, the Crows are not far behind in terms of performance, with a close ladder points difference. Our numbers suggest a good chance for Brisbane to win this quarter, but it won't be easy. The Crows might surprise us, so keep that in mind.

Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions · Spread Q4 5.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Noah Answerth Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Luke Nankervis Disposals 14.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Logan Morris Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Daniel Curtin Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Isaac Cumming Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Hugh McCluggage Clearances 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Conor McKenna Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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James Borlase Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Sam Berry Disposals 19.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Oscar Allen Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Jake Soligo Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Cam Rayner Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Sam Berry Fantasy 79.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Lachlan McAndrew Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Max Michalanney Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Josh Rachele Tackles 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Mark Keane Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Conor McKenna Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Wayne Milera Disposals 21.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Callum Ah Chee Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Cam Rayner Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Daniel Curtin Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Rory Laird Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Jaspa Fletcher Kicks 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Rory Laird Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Lachie Neale Tackles 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Hugh McCluggage Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Kai Lohmann Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Darcy Wilmot Fantasy 69.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Wayne Milera Fantasy 79.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Wayne Milera Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions · Team Total Points Q1 25.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Harris Andrews Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Luke Nankervis Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Josh Rachele Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Darcy Wilmot Disposals 17.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Zac Bailey Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Mark Keane Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Taylor Walker Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Ryan Lester Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Josh Rachele Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Rory Laird Disposals 18.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions · Team Total Points H1 49.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Brayden Cook Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Rory Laird Fantasy 69.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Izak Rankine Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Lachlan McAndrew Tackles 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Isaac Cumming Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Kai Lohmann Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Darcy Wilmot Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Wayne Milera Kicks 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions · Spread 21.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Josh Rachele Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Ryan Lester Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which team wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread) Win by more than a handicap margin. When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals Over or under the combined match score. Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.
Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.

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Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. The strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game's list.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked so the strongest picks surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can change the numbers on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick happens when the model's number and the bookmaker's price disagree: the model works out how likely the result really is, and when that chance is clearly higher than the price gives credit for, the gap is what makes it a pick. The bigger the gap, the stronger the pick — over many bets, not as a guarantee on any single one.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-confidence selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal picks. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-confidence selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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