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Today's AFL Picks — Edge, Probability & Best Odds

Free AFL picks across moneyline, line, totals and player props. Every selection shows the model's probability, the market edge, and readable reasoning — so you bet on numbers, not noise.

AFLGEE vs. MEL 2026-07-24 09:40
Show Picks
Oliver Dempsey Under 20.5 Disposals (Geelong Cats)
Probability 71.8%
Edge 18.9%
Best Odds -112

Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) Under 20.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Oliver Dempsey, the midfield maestro for the Geelong Cats, enters the upcoming clash against Melbourne at the MCG with a tantalizing player disposals line set at 20.5. However, recent trends and his L5 away game stats suggest a different story. Dempsey has been averaging 18 disposals in away games, falling short of the 20.5 line. His L5 performances against Melbourne also indicate a lower average of 14 disposals, signaling a potential struggle against this opponent. With a solid hit rate of 8/9 in away games for unders, Dempsey seems poised to maintain his trend and stay below the 20.5 disposals mark. Bet with confidence on Dempsey to come up just short in this statistical battle on Friday night.

Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.9%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.3%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points
Probability
Edge 16.9%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 16.7%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 16.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.8%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 11.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 11.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 10.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 10.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.3%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Head to Head
Probability
Edge 7.4%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 5.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Goals
Probability
Edge 1.9%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
AFLWCE vs. FRE 2026-07-24 10:10
Show Picks
West Coast Eagles at Fremantle Dockers: Fremantle Dockers Spread Q2 -11.5
Probability 73.3%
Edge 19.8%
Best Odds -115

Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles : Fremantle Dockers -11.5 spreads_q2 (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this juicy West Australian derby between the Fremantle Dockers and the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium. The Dockers are on fire at home, averaging a solid 27.8 margin and putting up an impressive 93.6 points per game in their last five outings. With their attacking prowess and a strong average of 58 Inside50s, they know how to keep the pressure on. On the flip side, the Eagles have been struggling on the road, with an average deficit of -23.8 and only managing 68.2 points per game. Their lower Inside50s at 50.2 and shots at goal at 22.6 could spell trouble against the Dockers' solid defense. With a line of -11.5 in favor of Fremantle, the stats suggest a comfortable win for the Dockers. So, back the Dockers to cover the spread and snag a convincing win in this fierce Western Australian showdown!

Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 18.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 18.0%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.0%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.2%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.0%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.3%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.8%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.4%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Goals
Probability
Edge 4.0%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 1.9%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.3%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.7%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.0%
AFLGCS vs. CAR 2026-07-25 03:05
Show Picks
Noah Anderson Over 28.5 Disposals (Gold Coast SUNS)
Probability 72.0%
Edge 17.1%
Best Odds -122

Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 28.5 Disposals (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Noah Anderson is primed to shine in the upcoming clash against Carlton at Marvel Stadium. Over his last five away games, Anderson has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 29.8 disposals per game. With a solid disposal efficiency of 60.7% and an ability to cover the ground efficiently with 594.8 meters gained on average, he's a pivotal playmaker for the Suns. Facing Carlton, he has historically averaged 24.2 disposals in away games and 25.2 overall against this opponent. The model predicts Anderson to tally around 31.4 disposals, indicating a significant edge for the Over 28.5 line. Backed by his recent form and matchup history, Anderson is poised to make a considerable impact, making the Over a compelling bet.

Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.7%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.9%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.1%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.3%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points
Probability
Edge 12.2%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.7%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.5%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 10.3%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.0%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.6%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 7.6%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.5%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 7.1%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread
Probability
Edge 7.0%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 6.8%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.3%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 4.7%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Head to Head
Probability
Edge 4.0%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.6%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 2.7%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Goals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 1.1%
AFLESS vs. HAW 2026-07-25 06:15
Show Picks
Essendon Bombers at Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks Spread Q4 -13.5
Probability 71.3%
Edge 17.8%
Best Odds -115

Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers : Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 spreads_q4 (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The stage is set at the iconic MCG as the Hawthorn Hawks gear up to take on the Essendon Bombers in what promises to be a thrilling showdown. Recent form speaks volumes, with the Hawks showcasing their dominance in their last five games, boasting an impressive average margin of 25 points. Led by a potent attack that averages 102 points per game, the Hawks have been hitting their targets with precision, bagging an average of 15.6 goals per match. On the flip side, the Bombers have struggled on the road, with a concerning average margin of -42 points in their last five outings. This stark contrast in scoring prowess and defensive resilience paints a clear picture for the Hawks to snag a commanding victory and cover the spread of -13.5 points in the final quarter.

Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 16.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 16.4%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 14.4%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 13.0%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 12.0%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.9%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.6%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.1%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Goals
Probability
Edge 6.9%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.7%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.2%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Goals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.1%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Goals
Probability
Edge 1.9%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.7%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Total Points
Probability
Edge 0.8%
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
AFLSYD vs. GWS 2026-07-25 06:35
Show Picks
Sydney Swans at Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under Total Points H2 91.5
Probability 72.0%
Edge 19.3%
Best Odds -111

Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Sydney Swans : Under 91.5 totals_h2 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the Greater Western Sydney Giants host the Sydney Swans at ENGIE Stadium, the stage is set for a defensive showdown. The Giants have been solid at home, averaging 103.8 points scored but conceding just 83.6 on their turf in the last five games. On the flip side, the Swans have struggled on the road, managing only 84.2 points for and leaking 103.2 points against per game. With both teams showing a tendency for tighter matches recently, the under 91.5 total points line seems like a smart play. The Giants' disciplined defense combined with the Swans' road woes point towards a game where scoring might not come easy. Expect a battle of attrition with both sides looking to grind out a low-scoring affair.

Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 17.9%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 15.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 14.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 12.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 10.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 10.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 8.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 7.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 7.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 6.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Spread
Probability
Edge 5.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.9%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Goals
Probability
Edge 3.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 3.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.1%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.8%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.4%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 1.0%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 0.5%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 0.2%
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs. Sydney Swans Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.2%
AFLRIC vs. WB 2026-07-25 09:40
Show Picks
Richmond Tigers at Western Bulldogs: Under Team Total Points H1 52.5 (Western Bulldogs)
Probability 64.4%
Edge 11.4%
Best Odds -112

Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers : Under 52.5 team_totals_h1 (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the Western Bulldogs clash with the Richmond Tigers at Marvel Stadium, the stage is set for an intriguing showdown. The Bulldogs have shown consistency in their offensive gameplay, averaging 26.2 shots at goal and 13 target goals in their last five home games. However, their points for average sits at 86.4, indicating they might struggle to breach the 52.5 line against a sturdy Tigers defense. On the other hand, Richmond, boasting a strong defense with a points against average of 93.8 overall and 114.4 in their last five away games, could make it tough for the Bulldogs to find their scoring rhythm early on. With both teams showcasing contrasting strengths, the under on the Bulldogs' team total of 52.5 for the first half emerges as a prudent wager for footy punters seeking value in this matchup.

Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 10.5%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points
Probability
Edge 10.3%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.7%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Goals
Probability
Edge 9.7%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 9.4%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 8.2%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Goals
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.7%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 5.6%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 5.3%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 4.4%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.6%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.6%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Head to Head
Probability
Edge 2.4%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.9%
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
AFLPA vs. BRI 2026-07-26 03:10
Show Picks
Port Adelaide Power at Brisbane Lions: Under Total Points Q3 47.5
Probability 70.2%
Edge 17.0%
Best Odds -114

Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power : Under 47.5 totals_q3 (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fanatics, let's delve into why backing the 'Under 47.5' in the third quarter between the Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide Power could be a shrewd move. The Lions, known for their attacking flair, have been averaging a solid 15.2 target goals in their last five home games, with a healthy 60 inside 50s per match. However, Port Adelaide's defensive prowess on the road has been impressive, conceding just 80 points on average in their away fixtures. With the Lions' offensive firepower potentially being contained by the Power's resilience, the stage is set for a tighter third quarter battle. Expect both teams to grind it out, resulting in a lower-scoring affair than the line suggests. So, keep your eyes peeled for a hard-fought quarter where every snagged goal counts!

Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 15.8%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Total Points Q4
Probability
Edge 12.2%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Total Points Q2
Probability
Edge 11.7%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 9.7%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.5%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 6.6%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Goals
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 5.4%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 3.7%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Goals
Probability
Edge 3.3%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.1%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Goals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.3%
Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.1%
AFLSTK vs. NM 2026-07-26 05:15
Show Picks
Bradley Hill Under 26.5 Disposals (St Kilda)
Probability 72.3%
Edge 18.5%
Best Odds -116

Bradley Hill (St Kilda) Under 26.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Look, when it comes to Bradley Hill and his disposal numbers, the numbers don't lie. Sure, he's been a consistent performer, but recent trends suggest a slight dip in his output. Over his last five away games, he's averaged 26.8 disposals, which is just a whisker above the line set at 26.5. Plus, in his last five games against North Melbourne, he's averaged 20.8 disposals when playing away. Add in the fact that Hill's contested possessions and turnovers haven't been stellar recently, and you've got a compelling case for taking the Under on his disposals line. With his disposal efficiency also taking a hit, the stage is set for Bradley Hill to potentially fall short of the mark. Betting against the grain here could be the savvy move for this clash at Marvel Stadium.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 17.9%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 17.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 17.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 14.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 11.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 10.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 9.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 8.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 8.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 8.2%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 7.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Spread
Probability
Edge 6.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 6.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Head to Head
Probability
Edge 6.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 5.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Team Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 5.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points
Probability
Edge 4.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 4.1%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points Q3
Probability
Edge 1.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points H2
Probability
Edge 1.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points Q1
Probability
Edge 1.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 1.3%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q2
Probability
Edge 1.0%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Goals
Probability
Edge 0.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Total Points H1
Probability
Edge 0.8%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q3
Probability
Edge 0.7%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.5%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Spread Q4
Probability
Edge 0.4%
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints Disposals
Probability
Edge 0.4%
AFLGEE vs. COL 2026-07-30 09:30
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Geelong Cats at Collingwood Magpies: Geelong Cats Head to Head
Probability 54.9%
Edge 3.1%
Best Odds -108

Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats : Geelong Cats Win (-108)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the clash between Collingwood and Geelong at the iconic MCG, recent form paints a clear picture. Collingwood, while solid at home with an average margin of 15.8, faces a Geelong side that is finding its groove away, averaging a margin of 2.6. Geelong's prowess in clearances and contested possessions (36.8 and 137.8 respectively) indicates their ability to dominate the midfield battle, while Collingwood may struggle to match up with averages of 35.4 and 118.6 in these areas. Geelong's superior inside 50s (55.2) and target disposals (370) further tilt the scales in their favor against Collingwood's defense. With recent scoring trends also favoring the Cats, backing Geelong to snag the win at the MCG seems like a smart play here.

AFLSYD vs. STK 2026-08-01 03:05
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Sydney Swans at St Kilda Saints: Sydney Swans Head to Head
Probability 70.1%
Edge 10.2%
Best Odds -149

St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans : Sydney Swans Win (-149)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

In this clash between St Kilda Saints and Sydney Swans, the data paints a compelling picture for the Swans to snag the victory. Despite playing away, the Swans have been showcasing some serious scoring prowess, averaging 84.2 points over their last five games. On the defensive end, they've tightened up, conceding an average of 91.4 points. On the flip side, the Saints have struggled to contain opponents at home, with an average of 85.4 points against them in their recent fixtures. With the Swans dominating in contested possessions and inside 50s, they have the tools to take advantage of St Kilda's defensive vulnerabilities. Combine this with the Swans' solid recent form, and the smart money looks to be on Sydney to split the middle and secure the win at Marvel Stadium.

St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Spread
Probability
Edge 7.3%
AFLNM vs. HAW 2026-08-01 03:35
Show Picks
North Melbourne Kangaroos at Hawthorn Hawks: North Melbourne Kangaroos Head to Head
Probability 39.0%
Edge 17.9%
Best Odds 375

Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos : North Melbourne Kangaroos Win (+375)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this intriguing Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos matchup at UTAS Stadium. While Hawthorn has shown some strength at home lately, averaging a margin of 4.4 points, North Melbourne's recent away form cannot be overlooked. Despite a tough run, the Kangaroos have been solid defensively, conceding an average of 70.4 points in their last 5 outings. North Melbourne's ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities, paired with their competitive edge in clearances and contested possessions, could give them the upper hand in this clash. On the flip side, Hawthorn has been prone to turnovers and might struggle to contain North Melbourne's defensive pressure. With the odds favoring the Hawks, a punt on the Kangaroos could offer value in what promises to be a closely contested affair.

Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos Spread
Probability
Edge 5.1%
AFLGWS vs. PA 2026-08-01 08:35
Show Picks
Greater Western Sydney Giants at Port Adelaide Power: Port Adelaide Power Spread 4.5
Probability 61.9%
Edge 9.2%
Best Odds -111

Port Adelaide Power vs Greater Western Sydney Giants : Port Adelaide Power 4.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy fans, let's dive into why backing Port Adelaide Power at +4.5 in the spread against the Greater Western Sydney Giants is a smart move this weekend. Port Adelaide has been a force to be reckoned with lately, especially at home in Adelaide Oval. Despite their recent narrow margins, they've been putting up a solid fight, averaging 76 points for and allowing 79.8 points against in their last five home games. On the attacking front, they've been hitting the target with an average of 26.6 shots at goal and 11 target goals per game. The Giants, on the other hand, have been a bit shaky on the road, conceding 81 points on average while struggling to match Port Adelaide's scoring prowess. With Port Adelaide's strong offensive game and the Giants' vulnerability away, this spread looks very achievable for the Power. So, expect the Power to snag a win and cover the spread comfortably this Saturday!

AFLWCE vs. RIC 2026-08-02 03:10
Show Picks
West Coast Eagles at Richmond Tigers: Richmond Tigers Head to Head
Probability 50.8%
Edge 0.1%
Best Odds -103

Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles : Richmond Tigers Win (-103)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The clash between the Richmond Tigers and the West Coast Eagles at the iconic MCG promises to be a thrilling showdown. Looking at the recent form of both teams, Richmond seems to have a slight edge in this matchup. Despite facing some tough opposition in their last five games, the Tigers have shown resilience, with an average margin of -23.6 at home. Their ability to control the clearances (33.2) and contested possessions (115.8) has been impressive, giving them an advantage in midfield battles. On the other hand, the Eagles have struggled on the road, averaging a margin of -23.8 and conceding an average of 92 points. With Richmond's strong home record and dominance in key statistical areas, backing the Tigers to secure the win could be a smart play in this game.

AFLMEL vs. GCS 2026-08-02 05:15
Show Picks
Melbourne Demons at Gold Coast Suns: Melbourne Demons Head to Head
Probability 74.1%
Edge 14.6%
Best Odds -147

Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons : Melbourne Demons Win (-147)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the clash between Gold Coast Suns and Melbourne Demons at People First Stadium, the data paints a clear picture in favor of the Demons. Melbourne's recent form on the road has been impressive, averaging a margin of 8.2 points in their last five away games, showcasing their ability to perform under pressure. Their solid defensive record, conceding just 80.6 points on average, combined with their strong offensive capabilities, averaging 88.8 points, makes them a force to be reckoned with. In contrast, Gold Coast has struggled to find consistency, especially at home, where they have been conceding 92 points on average. With Melbourne's dominance in clearances, contested possessions, and inside 50s, backing the Demons to secure the win seems like a smart bet.

Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Spread
Probability
Edge 0.4%

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Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For the highest-confidence shortlist only, use Best Bets. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which team wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread) Win by more than a handicap margin. When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals Over or under the combined match score. Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks. For the curated shortlist of the day's strongest edges, use AFL Best Bets. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. AFL Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Best Bets.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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