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AFL

Aaron Naughton

Western Bulldogs

+16.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -357 (1.28)
+16.2% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sun 24 Aug, 5:15AM
Model Probability
94.3%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+16.2%
Predicted Value
2.7 Goals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs) Over 1.5 Goals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Aaron Naughton's recent form, especially at home, makes him a strong bet to score over 1.5 goals against Fremantle. With a 3-game hit streak and an 8-game hit streak overall, he is in top form. Naughton's L5 stats show an average of 2.8 goals in home games, exceeding the line comfortably. Against Fremantle, he averages 2.5 goals in recent matchups, further supporting his goal-scoring potential. His high goal accuracy (68.4%) and significant involvement in scoring opportunities (8 score involvements per game) indicate a consistent threat in front of goal. With his current momentum and historical performance, Naughton is poised to snag more than 1.5 goals in this match.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (10 picks) 100.0% (10/10)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Aug 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Western Bulldogs Goals 1.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 25 Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons Goals 1.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 25 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Western Bulldogs Goals 1.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 25 Western Bulldogs @ Essendon Bombers Goals — — — Pending
18 Jul 25 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Goals — — — Pending
18 Jul 25 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 10 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (10/10). The latest model pick for Aaron Naughton is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs on Sunday 24 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.