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AFL

Jarrod Berry

Brisbane Lions

+18.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -114 (1.88)
+18.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
Model Probability
71.9%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+18.7%
Predicted Value
17.6 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) Under 20.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jarrod Berry heads into this clash against the Richmond Tigers with a streak of impressive performances, hitting the under on disposals in his last five games. Despite averaging 18.2 disposals in his recent away fixtures, facing the Tigers has historically limited his output to 16.5 disposals on average. Berry's recent form also shows a slight dip in uncontested possessions, a key factor in surpassing the 20.5 line. With a solid contested possessions average but facing a tough opponent in Richmond, Berry's disposals are likely to fall short of the line. Backing him to stay under 20.5 disposals at Ninja Stadium seems a prudent play, given his recent trends and historical performance against the Tigers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (4 picks) 50.0% (2/4)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 16.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 25 Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
26 Jul 25 Brisbane Lions @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 4 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 50.0% (2/4). The latest model pick for Jarrod Berry is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.