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AFL

Josh Worrell

Adelaide Crows

+15.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -132 (1.76)
+15.5% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Fri 20 Mar, 8:40AM
Model Probability
72.3%
Implied Probability
56.8%
Model Edge
+15.5%
Predicted Value
20.5 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Josh Worrell (Adelaide Crows) Under 23.5 Disposals (-132)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between Adelaide Crows and Western Bulldogs, Josh Worrell's recent form suggests he might fall short of the bookmaker's line of 23.5 disposals. In his last five home games, Worrell has averaged 25 disposals, with a solid 75.4% disposal efficiency. However, facing the Bulldogs, he has managed an average of 21 disposals in their past encounters. With his recent performance showing an average of 26.4 disposals overall and a hit rate of 12/20, there's a strong case for backing Worrell to go under 23.5 disposals this time around. The data presents a compelling argument that Worrell may struggle to reach this mark against a tough Bulldogs outfit.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (5 picks) 60.0% (3/5)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 23.5 Under -132 ✗ MISS
06 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 25 Adelaide Crows @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 14.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
31 May 25 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
25 May 25 West Coast Eagles @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Worrell (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 5 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 60.0% (3/5). The latest model pick for Josh Worrell is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.5% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows on Friday 20 March at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.