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AFL

Lawson Humphries

Geelong Cats

+0.6% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -588 (1.17)
+0.6% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne
Fri 5 Sep, 9:40AM
Model Probability
86.1%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
14.9 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Lawson Humphries is a solid pick to go over 9.5 disposals against Brisbane Lions. His recent form, especially at home, indicates he consistently surpasses this mark. With an average of 15.6 disposals in his last five home games and a streak of hitting this mark in 11 consecutive home games, Humphries is a reliable ball-winner. Additionally, facing Brisbane, he has historically performed well, averaging 16.5 disposals against them. His overall disposals average of 13 also supports this bet. Considering his current form and historical performance against the opponent, Humphries is likely to maintain his strong disposals output, making the over 9.5 disposals bet a sensible choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (3 picks) 66.7% (2/3)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 25 Geelong Cats @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 14.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
07 Jun 25 Gold Coast Suns @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -435 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 3 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 66.7% (2/3). The latest model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Friday 5 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.