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AFL

Matt Roberts

Sydney Swans

+1.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -303 (1.33)
+1.5% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney
Sat 19 Jul, 6:15AM
Model Probability
76.7%
Implied Probability
75.2%
Model Edge
+1.5%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) Over 14.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Matt Roberts is poised to shine in disposals against North Melbourne at SCG. With a model predicting 18.2 disposals, a 1.5% edge, and recent averages of 17.4 disposals in his last 5 home games, he's primed to surpass the 14.5 line. His strong contested possessions and intercepts, coupled with a steady 71.7% disposal efficiency, indicate his ability to impact the game. Facing North Melbourne, against whom he has averaged 22 disposals in his last 5 home games, Roberts' consistency and current form make the Over 14.5 disposals a favorable bet. With a solid hit rate and recent streaks, he's a reliable choice for this prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (6 picks) 66.7% (4/6)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 25 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -303 ✗ MISS
13 Jul 25 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
27 Jun 25 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
31 May 25 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
25 May 25 Sydney Swans @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matt Roberts (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 6 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 66.7% (4/6). The latest model pick for Matt Roberts is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 19 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.