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AFL

Nick Blakey

Sydney Swans

+11.8% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -110 (1.91)
+11.8% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney
Thu 5 Mar, 8:30AM
Model Probability
64.2%
Implied Probability
52.4%
Model Edge
+11.8%
Predicted Value
24.3 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) Over 22.5 Disposals (-110)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, you want a player who's not just talented but consistently delivering on the field. Nick Blakey of the Sydney Swans fits that bill perfectly. With an average of 24.6 disposals in his last five home games, Blakey has been a midfield machine. His ability to find the footy, coupled with a strong contested possessions average of 3.8, demonstrates his influence in the thick of the action. Facing Carlton, who he's averaged 19.2 disposals against in his last five matchups, Blakey is poised to exploit their defense and rack up the possessions. Add in his impressive 78.8% disposal efficiency and recent form of hitting the over in three consecutive home games, and it's clear why the smart money is on Blakey to surpass 22.5 disposals at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (4 picks) 50.0% (2/4)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Mar 26 Carlton Blues @ Sydney Swans Disposals 22.5 Over -110 ✗ MISS
13 Jul 25 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 19.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 25 Sydney Swans @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 4 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 50.0% (2/4). The latest model pick for Nick Blakey is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.8% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Sydney Swans on Thursday 5 March at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.