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AFL

Riley Garcia

Western Bulldogs

+0.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -256 (1.39)
+0.2% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne
Sun 10 Aug, 5:15AM
Model Probability
72.2%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+0.2%
Predicted Value
17.5 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Riley Garcia (Western Bulldogs) Over 14.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Riley Garcia presents a strong case for exceeding 14.5 disposals against Melbourne. His recent form, averaging 16.4 disposals in away games and 15.8 overall, coupled with a solid contested possessions average of 6.8 and high disposal efficiency of 76.9%, indicate his ability to maintain possession effectively. Facing Melbourne, where he averages 15.5 disposals against them, further supports this bet. With a current hit streak of 1 away and 2 overall, along with a hit rate of 5/6 in away games and 9/11 overall, Garcia's consistent performance and upward trend suggest he's well-positioned to surpass the 14.5 disposals mark in this matchup, making the Over a favorable bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (3 picks) 100.0% (3/3)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Aug 25 Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 14.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 25 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 14.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 25 Western Bulldogs @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Riley Garcia (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 3 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (3/3). The latest model pick for Riley Garcia is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 10 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.