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AFL

Sam Durham

Essendon

+2.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -714 (1.14)
+2.2% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar, 8:35AM
Model Probability
89.9%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+2.2%
Predicted Value
22.9 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Sam Durham (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between Essendon and North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, all eyes are on Sam Durham to shine brightly on his home turf. Durham's recent form is nothing short of impressive, averaging 23.2 disposals in his last five home games, well above the set line of 16.5. His ability to find the footy in contested situations, paired with a solid disposal efficiency of 66.2%, indicates he's not just a quantity player but a quality contributor. Against North Melbourne, Durham has historically stepped up, averaging 18 disposals in their previous encounters. With a current hit streak and a trend of consistency, backing Durham to surpass 16.5 disposals is a wager backed by his undeniable impact on the field.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (5 picks) 100.0% (5/5)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 15.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 16.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 17.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Sam Durham (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 5 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (5/5). The latest model pick for Sam Durham is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.2% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 28 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.