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AFL

Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

+16.6% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -233 (1.43)
+16.6% Edge
Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne
Thu 19 Mar, 8:30AM
Model Probability
86.6%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+16.6%
Predicted Value
1.4 Goals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Papley, the sharpshooter from Sydney Swans, is set to light up the MCG against Hawthorn Hawks. In his last five away games, Papley averages nearly a goal per game, showcasing his scoring prowess. His recent form is impressive, with an average of 3 shots on goal per game, ensuring he's always in the thick of the action. With a solid goal accuracy of 18.7% away from home, Papley's ability to convert his chances is undeniable. Moreover, his strong involvement in the Swans' attacking plays, averaging 7.4 score involvements per game, indicates he's a key figure in their forward line. Considering Papley's consistency and the favorable matchup against Hawthorn, backing him to snag at least one goal is a smart bet with a high probability of hitting.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (7 picks) 100.0% (7/7)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Mar 26 Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 10.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Goals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 7 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (7/7). The latest model pick for Tom Papley is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.6% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks on Thursday 19 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.