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AFL

Tom Sparrow

Melbourne

+1.9% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -714 (1.14)
+1.9% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne
Sat 13 Jun, 3:15AM
Model Probability
89.6%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+1.9%
Predicted Value
22.8 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) Over 16.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to locking in a solid AFL player prop bet, Tom Sparrow is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Essendon Bombers at the iconic MCG. Sparrow, in his recent home games, has been a disposal machine, averaging a stellar 21.4 disposals per game. With an impressive recent hit streak and an overall average of 23.4 disposals, he's been a consistent force on the field. Considering his current form, Sparrow's ability to find the footy both in contested and uncontested situations, and his knack for effective disposal, it's no surprise that the model predicts him to hit 22.8 disposals against Essendon. With a line set at 16.5, the data suggests that Sparrow is poised to not only meet but exceed this mark. So, backing Sparrow to go over 16.5 disposals in this game seems like a smart move backed by solid stats and recent performance trends.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (2 picks) 50.0% (1/2)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 11.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
01 Jun 25 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over +125 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 2 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 50.0% (1/2). The latest model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.9% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 13 June at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.