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AFL

Xavier Duursma

Essendon

+3.3% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -714 (1.14)
+3.3% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar, 8:35AM
Model Probability
91.0%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+3.3%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Xavier Duursma (Essendon) Over 11.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Xavier Duursma is the man to watch in the upcoming Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos clash at Marvel Stadium. Duursma has been in red-hot form, averaging an impressive 18.2 disposals over his last five home games, including a stellar 25-possession performance against this very opponent not too long ago. What sets Duursma apart is his consistency, boasting a flawless hit rate in his last five home games and maintaining a perfect 10/10 hit streak overall. With his ability to find the footy, excellent disposal efficiency at 80.2%, and a knack for gaining valuable metres, Duursma is primed to shine on his home turf once again. The numbers don't lie – Duursma is a reliable bet to surpass the 11.5 disposal line and make a significant impact for the Bombers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (5 picks) 60.0% (3/5)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 13.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 14.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 15.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Xavier Duursma (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 5 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 60.0% (3/5). The latest model pick for Xavier Duursma is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 28 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.