Best MLB Parlay Picks Today, Thursday 04/16 (7-Leg) Featuring Sal Stewart!: Beat the Books

As the Phillies host the Cubs, all eyes will be on Matt Shaw, but the under on 3.5 hits seems like a savvy play. Shaw, while showing promise, has faced a steep learning curve against quality pitching. The Phillies' staff has been formidable, especially at home, where they've limited opposing hitters to a mere .224 batting average. Additionally, Shaw hasn't been consistent at the plate, often swinging through pitches that would typically find the grass. With the Cubs' recent struggles against right-handed pitchers, and the potential for a tough matchup against the Phillies' ace, it’s reasonable to expect Shaw to fall short of that 3.5 mark. Considering the current form and the pressure of a big game, betting the under on Shaw's hits feels like a calculated risk, especially with a solid model suggesting a significant edge in this scenario.

Matt Shaw (NA) Under 6.5 Total Bases (-303)

As the Phillies gear up to host the Cubs, all eyes will be on rookie sensation Matt Shaw. However, betting on him to go over 6.5 total bases might be a stretch. Shaw has had his moments, but against a tough Phillies pitching staff, he’s likely to struggle. The Phillies' bullpen has been stellar lately, boasting a 3.20 ERA over the past month, making it hard for hitters to find their rhythm. Moreover, Shaw’s recent performances have shown inconsistency, particularly against right-handed pitchers, which the Phillies will feature prominently. With the Cubs battling for runs and Shaw still finding his footing at the big league level, it’s wise to lean towards the under. The odds favor this approach, suggesting that the smart money is on a quieter night for Shaw at the plate. Keep an eye on this matchup as the innings unfold; it might just be one to watch.

Sal Stewart (NA) Under 6.5 RBIs (-1000)

As the Reds host the Giants, all eyes will be on Sal Stewart, but the odds might not favor him racking up RBIs. With the Giants’ pitching staff boasting a commendable 3.40 ERA, they’ve been adept at minimizing damage, particularly against right-handed hitters, which is crucial for Stewart's chances. Cincinnati's overall offensive production has been inconsistent, and the pressure of the moment might further hinder their ability to capitalize with runners on base. Stewart has been showing flashes of potential, yet his recent performances have not translated into consistent RBI opportunities. The under on 6.5 RBIs feels like a savvy play here, especially considering the Giants' ability to neutralize opposing batsmen. With the current trajectory of both teams and Stewart’s limited role in the lineup, it’s hard to envision him surpassing that line tonight. Keep an eye on this one; it’s shaping up to be a low-scoring affair.

Bryan Reynolds (PIT) Under 3.5 Walks (-1111)

As the Pirates take on the Nationals, all eyes should be on Bryan Reynolds when it comes to walks. Despite his impressive ability to get on base, the numbers suggest he’s not likely to draw more than three walks in this matchup. Reynolds has faced off against some tough pitching this season, and with Washington's rotation looking sharper lately, the chances of him walking freely diminish. The Nationals have been effective at limiting walks, ranking among the top teams in the league in walk rate against. Moreover, Reynolds has seen a decrease in his walk percentage, which hints that he’s been more aggressive at the plate. With the line set at 3.5, taking the under appears to be a smart move, especially considering the trends favor a tighter game where plate discipline will be crucial. Expect a competitive battle, but don't count on Reynolds drawing four walks today.

Cody Bellinger (NA) Under 1.5 Doubles (-1250)

As the Yankees gear up to face the Angels, Cody Bellinger’s performance at the plate comes into sharp focus. While Bellinger has shown flashes of brilliance, he’s been in a bit of a slump lately, and facing a tough Yankees pitching staff could compound the challenge. The Yankees’ rotation has been stingy, limiting opponents to a mere .230 batting average and a low slugging percentage. Moreover, Bellinger has struggled with making solid contact against right-handed pitchers, which is significant considering he’ll likely be facing one of the Yankees’ best in this matchup. Add to that the Yankees' stellar defense, which excels in turning balls into outs, and it paints a picture of a tough night for Bellinger. Betting the under on 1.5 doubles seems prudent here, as the odds heavily favor a quiet evening for the Angels’ slugger against a formidable foe.

Jake Fraley (SEA) Under 1.5 Stolen Bases (-1250)

As the White Sox host the Rays on Thursday, all eyes will be on Jake Fraley and his ability to swipe bases. However, the stats point toward a more cautious night for him. While Fraley has speed, he’s had a tough time against the White Sox’s arms, particularly facing pitchers adept at holding runners close. The White Sox, boasting a solid defense, have limited stolen bases significantly this season, allowing just a handful per game. In fact, their catchers have been particularly effective at gunning down would-be base-stealers. With Fraley likely to find himself in tight situations, it’s hard to see him successfully stealing multiple bases against this formidable defense. Considering his recent performances and the White Sox's stingy approach in this department, betting on him to go under 1.5 stolen bases feels like a smart play. With a high implied probability backing this choice, it’s one that makes sense in this matchup.