Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Thursday 04/16 (5-Leg) : High Probability Plays

As the Clippers gear up to face the Warriors, all eyes will be on Kawhi Leonard. However, betting the under on his combined points and assists seems like the prudent play. Over the last five games, Leonard has averaged just 25.6 points and 3.8 assists, well below the 36.5 mark we're targeting. Even more telling is his performance against Golden State; he's averaged only 22.4 points and 3.8 assists in their last five matchups. With the Warriors allowing an average of 26.8 points and 4.6 assists to opposing players, it's clear that Kawhi might face a tough night. Considering he's hit the under in 9 of his last 10 games, there's a strong chance he won't eclipse that 36.5 benchmark. With a model edge of over 20%, this bet not only feels safe-it looks like a smart play as the Clippers look to secure a win.

Kawhi Leonard (LA Clippers) Under 9.5 Rebounds (-345)

As we gear up for the Clippers' showdown against the Warriors, targeting Kawhi Leonard for under 9.5 rebounds feels like a savvy play. Despite Leonard's undeniable talent, his recent performance underscores a trend that works in our favor. Over his last five games, he's averaged just 6.4 boards, which is below the threshold we're eyeing. Against the Warriors, known for their pace and sharp shooting, he's averaged 8.4 rebounds-but that's not the full picture. When playing at home, his numbers dip, mirroring the overall trend of his recent outings. With a perfect hit rate of 20 for 20 on hitting the under in this spot, we can lean into the numbers. Given the implied probability of 77.5% here, it's hard to ignore this opportunity. As he faces a Warriors team that's been tough on opposing rebounders, the under on Kawhi looks like a solid bet.

Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors) Over 11.5 Points (-189)

As the Golden State Warriors gear up to face the Los Angeles Clippers, all eyes should be on Brandin Podziemski to exceed the 11.5 points mark. Over his last five games, he's been on fire, averaging 19 points, and his scoring prowess has translated well on the road, where he's dropped an average of 17.6 points. Even against the Clippers, Podziemski has proven he can find the basket, registering 12 points in their previous matchup. With a remarkable hit rate of 10 out of his last 11 outings hitting the over, and a solid 75% success rate in his last four away games, it seems almost a given that he'll surpass this line. Given his expected stat value of 18.16 points, putting your chips on Podziemski to go over 11.5 feels like a smart play in this matchup.

Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors) Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-192)

As the Golden State Warriors gear up to face the Los Angeles Clippers, all eyes should be on Brandin Podziemski. With a current average of 19 points and 2.2 rebounds over his last five outings, he's been on fire, consistently finding ways to contribute on the scoreboard. The matchup against the Clippers is particularly enticing; even though he averages 12 points against them, his recent away performances show an uptick, with 17.6 points and 4.4 rebounds away from home.What's more, Podziemski has hit the over on 16.5 points and rebounds in 10 of his last 11 games, showcasing his ability to step up when it counts. With the expected stat value soaring to 22.88, it's clear he's not just meeting expectations-he's exceeding them. Given these trends, betting on the over feels like a solid play as he looks to make a statement on the road.