Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-154)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Derrick Henry to have under 1.5 receptions against the Pittsburgh Steelers is supported by several statistical trends. Henry's reception success rate against the Steelers is notably low, with only 1 successful reception in the last 3 games, and none in the last game played at home. This trend extends to his overall performance against the Steelers, where he has only managed to hit the mark 1 out of 3 times. His current hit streak against the Steelers is also at zero, indicating a lack of recent success. Additionally, the model edge of 0.123 suggests a significant advantage for this under bet. While Henry's overall and home performance is more positive, his specific struggles against the Steelers make the under 1.5 receptions bet a statistically sound choice.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistical data strongly supports a bet on Tyler Allgeier to rush for under 21.5 yards in the Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks game. Firstly, Allgeier has a poor recent performance record, with no successful hit rate in his last 5 overall attempts, last 5 home attempts, last 5 attempts against the Seahawks, and last 5 home attempts against the Seahawks. His overall hit rate is just 10 successes out of 62 attempts, a low 16% success rate. Furthermore, his performance at home is particularly weak, with only 4 successes out of 30 attempts, a dismal 13% success rate. Even when considering a larger sample size of the last 20 attempts overall and at home, his hit rates remain low at 15% and 20% respectively. His track record against the Seahawks is also concerning, with no successful attempts in 2 overall encounters and 1 home encounter. Therefore, the under 21.5 bet appears statistically

Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistical data heavily supports the under 21.5 bet for Keon Coleman in the 'player_reception_yds' market. Recently, Coleman's performance has been underwhelming, with his overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, and 10 games being 0. This indicates that he hasn't surpassed 21.5 receiving yards in any of his recent games. When looking at his home games, the hit rate isn't much better, being 0 for the last 3 and 5 games, and only 2 for the last 10 games. His overall hit rate is also low at 3 out of 26 games, meaning he has only surpassed 21.5 receiving yards in roughly 11.5% of his games. The model also shows a significant edge (17.1%) towards the under. Given these consistent under performances, betting under 21.5 for Coleman's receiving yards is statistically justified.

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