Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 26.5 Points (-111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Trail Blazers gear up to take on the Denver Nuggets, targeting Deni Avdija for the under on points feels like a savvy play. Historically, Avdija's recent performances reveal a sharp contrast when playing away from home. While he's averaged 25.2 points in his last five road games, his numbers dip significantly against the Nuggets, where he's managed just 13.4 points in their last matchup. Moreover, his overall hit rate of 18 out of 20 for the under adds weight to this wager. With an expected stat value of 21.56, the 26.5 mark feels like a stretch. In a tough away environment against a solid Denver defense, it's likely we'll see Avdija struggle to find his rhythm, making the under a compelling bet as we anticipate a game where he hovers well below that threshold.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 10.5 Assists (+109)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but perhaps not in the way you'd expect. While his average assists over the last five games sits at a healthy 12.8, the matchup against Portland could reveal a different story. Historically, Jokic has averaged only 9.6 assists against the Blazers in their last five encounters, and at home, that number ticks up slightly to 10.2. However, with the intensity of playoff positioning in the air, Jokic might find himself more focused on scoring or facilitating in other ways, especially given the Trail Blazers' defensive schemes designed to limit his playmaking. With an expected stat value of just 9.44 assists, the under 10.5 feels like a savvy play here. It's a case of reading the matchups and understanding that even the best can be stifled under the right conditions.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 12.5 Rebounds (-101)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets welcome the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but we're leaning toward the under on his rebounding prop of 12.5. While Jokic has been a rebounding machine, averaging 15.2 boards in his last five outings, there's a trend that suggests he might fall short tonight. Against Portland, he's averaged just 11.8 rebounds in their recent matchups, and at home, that number dips to 13.2. The Blazers have been surprisingly effective at limiting second-chance opportunities, which could further frustrate Jokic's usual dominance on the glass. Plus, in his last ten home games, he's only hit this mark 60% of the time. With an expected stat value of 11.85, it feels like the under is a savvy play. Look for Jokic to facilitate more than he rebounds tonight, making this a compelling bet.

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