What is betting value in sports?

Betting value exists when the perceived probability of an outcome happening is higher than the implied probability represented by the betting odds offered by a sportsbook. It's about finding wagers where you're getting better odds than the true chance of the event occurring.

Why is finding betting value important?

Consistently finding and betting on value is crucial for long-term profitability in sports betting. Over time, placing wagers where the odds are in your favor (positive expected value) is the fundamental principle behind successful sports investing, differentiating it from mere gambling.

How does Bet Better identify betting value?

Bet Better uses advanced AI and Machine Learning models to calculate the most accurate probability for a game or event outcome. We then compare this calculated probability to the implied probability derived from sportsbook odds. If our calculated probability is significantly higher than the implied probability of the odds, we identify that wager as having positive betting value.

How do I calculate implied probability from odds?

Implied probability can be calculated differently based on the odds format (American, Decimal, Fractional). For Decimal odds, it's 1 / Decimal Odds. For American odds, if positive (+X), it's 100 / (100 + X); if negative (-X), it's -X / (-X + 100). Comparing this to your estimated true probability reveals potential value.

Can AI guarantee finding value every time?

While AI significantly improves our ability to calculate accurate probabilities and identify potential value, it cannot guarantee value in every single wager or eliminate variance. Sports outcomes are inherently uncertain. Our AI helps find opportunities with a statistical edge based on objective data, increasing the likelihood of long-term success.

Finding Betting Value in Sports | Bet Better Analytics

In the world of sports betting, the difference between gambling and investing often comes down to one core concept: **Betting Value**. It's not just about picking winners; it's about finding opportunities where the odds offered by the sportsbook are more favorable than the true probability of the outcome occurring. At Bet Better, identifying this value is fundamental to our analytical approach.

What is Betting Value?

Betting value, often associated with **positive expected value (+EV)**, occurs when the implied probability of an outcome based on the betting odds is lower than your calculated probability of that outcome happening. In simpler terms, you find value when you believe an event is more likely to occur than the odds suggest.

Conceptual Example: Coin Flip

A fair coin flip has a 50% chance of landing heads. If a sportsbook offered you 2.10 decimal odds (+110 American odds) on heads (implying a 47.6% probability), this would be a value bet because the true probability (50%) is higher than the implied probability (47.6%). Over many flips, betting on these odds would be profitable.

Why Focus on Betting Value?

Betting on value is the only reliable path to potential long-term profitability in sports betting. While you won't win every wager, consistently placing bets where you have an edge means that, over a large sample size, the positive expected value should lead to a profit. Relying solely on picking favorites or gut feelings without considering value is gambling, not a sustainable strategy.

How Bet Better Identifies Betting Value

Identifying true betting value requires accurately calculating the probability of an outcome. This is where Bet Better's advanced methodology comes into play. We combine:

Artificial Intelligence (AI) & Machine Learning (ML): Our models analyze vast datasets to generate the most objective and accurate probabilities for game outcomes, player stats, and other events.
Actuarial Mathematics: We apply probabilistic and statistical principles to refine our models and understand the true likelihood of outcomes.
Comparison to Market Odds: We continuously track live odds from leading sportsbooks. By comparing our AI-calculated probabilities to the implied probabilities of these odds, we highlight where discrepancies exist, indicating potential value.

Our process is designed to objectively find situations where the market might be mispricing an outcome, giving you the opportunity to capitalize on value.

Calculating Implied Probability vs. True Probability

Understanding the relationship between odds and probability is key to value betting:

**Sportsbook Odds:** These represent the sportsbook's assessment of the probability and include their margin (vig/vigorish).
**Implied Probability:** This is the probability of an outcome suggested by the odds, *excluding* the vig. You can calculate it from the odds (see FAQ below).
**True Probability:** This is the actual likelihood of the outcome occurring, estimated by your own analysis or, at Bet Better, by our sophisticated AI models.

Value Check: Comparing Probabilities

Suppose a team has Decimal odds of 2.50 (+150 American odds) to win. The implied probability is 1 / 2.50 = 0.40 or 40%.

If Bet Better's AI models calculate the team's true probability of winning is 45%, then there is value:

True Probability (45%) > Implied Probability (40%)

This indicates the odds of 2.50 are favorable relative to the true likelihood.

How to Use Value Insights from Bet Better

We provide you with the results of our value identification process, highlighting bets that our models suggest have a positive expected value. This doesn't mean it's a guaranteed win, but rather a statistically favorable wager over the long term. Incorporate these insights into your betting strategy, focusing your wagers on these identified value opportunities.

Make Data-Driven Value Bets

Finding betting value is the cornerstone of intelligent sports betting. Bet Better provides the analytical power to uncover these opportunities using cutting-edge AI and a rigorous methodology.

Explore our complete approach on Our Methodology page, or see the results of our value analysis in our latest Best Bets and Predictions.

Understanding and Finding Betting Value in Sports