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NBA

Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers

+11.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 18.5 -128 (1.78)
+11.5% Edge
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks
Madison Square Garden, New York
Tue 17 Mar, 11:30PM
Model Probability
67.6%
Implied Probability
56.2%
Model Edge
+11.5%
Predicted Value
15.3 Pts + Rebs

AI Analysis

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Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) Under 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-128)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Indiana Pacers head to Madison Square Garden, all eyes will be on Aaron Nesmith, but I'm leaning towards the Under 18.5 points and rebounds for him in this matchup. While he plays an important role, his recent outings tell a different story. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 8.4 points and 5 rebounds, well below our target. Even when he's on the road, those numbers tick slightly up to 8.8 points and 6 rebounds, yet he's still far from the mark. Facing the Knicks, Nesmith has only managed about 9.8 points and 4.4 rebounds in their last five encounters, with his away averages dropping to 13.6 points and 3.4 rebounds against them. With a hit rate of just 2 out of his last 3 away games, the Under feels like a strong play here. Don't sleep on this one!

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (8 picks) 100.0% (8/8)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Mar 26 Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs 18.5 Under -128 ✓ HIT
21 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Assists 2.5 Under -200 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards 3-Pointers 2.5 Under -149 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Assists — — — Pending
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Rebs + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 8 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (8/8). The latest model pick for Aaron Nesmith is Under 18.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.5% on this pick. Their next game is Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks on Tuesday 17 March at Madison Square Garden, New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.