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NBA

Chet Holmgren

Oklahoma City Thunder

+12.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Rebounds Under 8.5 +106 (2.06)
+12.2% Edge
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Sun 19 Apr, 7:30PM
Model Probability
60.8%
Implied Probability
48.5%
Model Edge
+12.2%
Predicted Value
7.8 Rebounds

AI Analysis

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Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 8.5 Rebounds (+106)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As Chet Holmgren takes the court for the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Phoenix Suns, the under on his rebounds at 8.5 could be the savvy play. Despite averaging 8.8 rebounds over his last five games, there's a notable dip when he's at home, where he's pulled down just 7.6 boards on average. Moreover, his history against the Suns shows a consistent struggle; he's only managed about 7 rebounds in their last meetings, further hinting that the Suns' physical play around the rim could limit his opportunities. With a hit rate of just 2 out of his last 4 games and a trend of underperformance at home against strong opponents, taking the under feels like a solid strategy. Expect Holmgren to have a tough time matching that 8.5 mark in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (7 picks) 42.9% (3/7)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds 8.5 Under +106 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds 11.5 Under -435 ✓ HIT
08 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Rebounds 7.5 Under +112 ✗ MISS
05 Apr 26 Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 7 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 42.9% (3/7). The latest model pick for Chet Holmgren is Under 8.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.2% on this pick. Their next game is Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday 19 April at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.