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NBA

Chet Holmgren

Oklahoma City Thunder

+9.1% Edge
🔥 4 Consecutive Hits
Latest Pick
Pts + Asts Under 18.5 -128 (1.78)
+9.1% Edge
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando
Tue 17 Mar, 11:00PM
Model Probability
65.3%
Implied Probability
56.2%
Model Edge
+9.1%
Predicted Value
16.0 Pts + Asts

AI Analysis

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Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 18.5 Points + Assists (-128)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Thunder head into Orlando, all eyes will be on Chet Holmgren, but the smart play here might be to lean towards the under on his combined points and assists. Averaging just 13 points and 0.6 assists over his last five games, his recent form suggests a struggle to hit that 18.5 mark. When playing away, those numbers dip slightly-13.8 points and 1.2 assists-which still falls short of our target. Plus, facing the Magic, who have been tougher defensively, Holmgren has only managed 14 points in his last five encounters with them. With an impressive hit rate of 4 for 4 under this line recently and 6 of 9 away, it's clear he's been more contained on the road. When you combine these factors, betting the under just makes sense.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (16 picks) 37.5% (6/16)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic Pts + Asts 18.5 Under -128 ✗ MISS
13 Mar 26 Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Rebs + Asts 36.5 Under -1250 ✓ HIT
04 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls Pts + Rebs 39.5 Under -1429 ✓ HIT
04 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls Points Pending
28 Feb 26 Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Asts Pending
28 Feb 26 Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Blocks Pending

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About This Player

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 16 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 37.5% (6/16). Chet Holmgren is currently on a 4-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Chet Holmgren is Under 18.5 on Pts + Asts. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.1% on this pick. Their next game is Oklahoma City Thunder vs Orlando Magic on Tuesday 17 March at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.