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NBA

Jamal Murray

Denver Nuggets

+21.8% Edge
Latest Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 30.5 -108 (1.93)
+21.8% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
Model Probability
73.6%
Implied Probability
51.8%
Model Edge
+21.8%
Predicted Value
26.1 Pts + Rebs

AI Analysis

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Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Nuggets gear up to face the Timberwolves at home, it's worth considering a player prop bet on Jamal Murray for the under on points and rebounds combined at 30.5. Despite Murray's undeniable talent, his recent performances suggest a modest output. Over his last five games, he's averaged just 23.6 points and 4.6 rebounds, well below our target number. Even in his recent home matchups, where he typically shines, he's only managed 22.4 points and 4.8 rebounds. The Timberwolves have also been a tough matchup defensively, limiting him to an average of 24.6 points and 3.2 rebounds when playing at home against them. With a hit rate of 3 out of 4 at home but still falling shy of 30.5, it's reasonable to lean toward the under here. Expect a more balanced team effort in what could be a tightly contested game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (13 picks) 23.1% (3/13)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs 30.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Points 26.5 Under -115 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Asts 32.5 Under -109 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs + Asts Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Asts Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs + Asts Pending

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About This Player

Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 13 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 23.1% (3/13). The latest model pick for Jamal Murray is Under 30.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.8% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.