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NBA

Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets

+28.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Assists Under 9.5 +107 (2.07)
+28.7% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
Model Probability
77.0%
Implied Probability
48.3%
Model Edge
+28.7%
Predicted Value
8.2 Assists

AI Analysis

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Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 9.5 Assists (+107)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but savvy bettors might want to consider the under on his assists, set at 9.5. While Jokic dazzles with an average of 11.2 assists over his last five home games, the matchup against Minnesota poses some challenges. Historically, Jokic has logged just 9 assists per game against them at home, which suggests that this Timberwolves defense knows how to stifle his playmaking. Plus, with an expected stat value of 8.19, the odds indicate a significant chance he falls short of that 10-assist mark. As he engages more in scoring, we might see a shift away from his usual distribution. With the price hovering around 2.07 on DraftKings, it's a compelling play to consider. Grab the under before tip-off!

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (9 picks) 88.9% (8/9)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Assists 9.5 Under +107 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebs + Asts 23.5 Under -103 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebounds 13.5 Under -105 ✗ MISS
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets 3-Pointers — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 9 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 88.9% (8/9). The latest model pick for Nikola Jokic is Under 9.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +28.7% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.