Bet Better Bet Better
☰
×

Popular Pages Today

NHL Logo
NHL prop bets
MLB Logo
MLB parlays
NBA Logo
NBA prop bets
MLB Logo
MLB prop bets
AFL Logo
AFL best bets

NHL Prop Bets - Today's Best NHL Player Prop Bets

Find an edge in NHL Player Props with Bet Better's data-driven analysis. Our models leverage actuarial mathematics, machine learning, and AI to break down player matchups and identify high-value prop betting opportunities for today's NHL games.

NHL • New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs •
Jacob Markstrom Over 22.5 Saves
Probability: 63.7% Edge: 11.3%
Odds (Dec): 1.91 Odds (US): -110
Reasoning

Jacob Markstrom (New Jersey Devils) Over 22.5 Saves (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting over 22.5 on Jacob Markstrom in the 'Player Total Saves' market is supported by several key statistics. In his last 5 away games, Markstrom has averaged 28.4 saves, comfortably exceeding the 22.5 line. Additionally, he has faced an average of 31.2 shots in these games, providing ample opportunities to make saves. Moreover, his current hit streak in away games is at 3, demonstrating consistency in his performance. Even considering his overall average of 19.4 saves, he's hit the over in 6 of his last 10 games. The model prediction of 25.69, despite a standard deviation of 7.7, still indicates a strong chance of Markstrom making more than 22.5 saves. Thus, the data suggests Markstrom is likely to exceed the line, making the over a solid betting choice.

NHL • Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks •
Samuel Ersson Over 21.5 Saves
Probability: 58.2% Edge: 2.7%
Odds (Dec): 1.80 Odds (US): -125
Reasoning

Samuel Ersson (Philadelphia Flyers) Over 21.5 Saves (-125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data supports a bet on Samuel Ersson to make over 21.5 saves in the upcoming game. The model predicts that Ersson will make 23.6 saves, which surpasses the betting line by a fair margin. His average saves in the last 5 away games is 21.8, which is slightly above the bet line. This suggests that Ersson's performance is typically around this level, and not an anomaly. Additionally, Ersson has achieved this target in three of his last four away games, indicating a high hit rate. Although his current hit streak is zero, he has managed to meet or exceed this target in five of his last seven games overall. All these factors combined indicate a strong chance of Ersson making over 21.5 saves in the game against Vancouver Canucks.

All prop picks beyond this point are for Pro members
Access 1 more premium prop pick!
Get Bet Better Pro

About Bet Better

20 Proprietary Machine Learning Models

Our edge isn't bought, it's built. Each model is developed in-house to find value the public consensus overlooks.

10,000+ Game Simulations Per Matchup

Our models simulate every game over 10,000 times to project true odds and identify profitable market dislocations.

47,088+ Active Customers

Join a thriving community shaping the future of betting.

NHL Player Prop Bets: Data-Driven Picks & Predictions

Hit the ice with Bet Better's advanced analytics and AI-powered insights for NHL Player Prop Bets. Player props in the National Hockey League allow you to wager on specific individual achievements of skaters and goalies—such as goals scored, assists, points, shots on goal, or goalie saves. This adds a thrilling, skill-based dimension to your NHL betting. Our platform utilizes sophisticated actuarial modeling, cutting-edge machine learning, and deep statistical analysis to identify high-value NHL player prop picks that offer a discernible edge.

Understanding NHL Player Prop Betting Markets

NHL Player Props are diverse, primarily categorized into skater props (forwards and defensemen) and goaltender props:

Types of NHL Skater Props (Forwards & Defensemen)

  • Goals Props: Betting on a player to score (e.g., Anytime Goal Scorer - Yes/No, Over/Under 0.5 goals). Also includes First Goal Scorer and Last Goal Scorer markets.
  • Assists Props: Wagering on whether a player will record over or under a certain number of assists (e.g., O/U 0.5 assists).
  • Points Props: Betting on a player's total points (Goals + Assists) in a game (e.g., O/U 0.5 points, O/U 1.5 points).
  • Shots on Goal (SOG) Props: Predicting if a player will have over or under a specific number of shots that hit the net.
  • Power Play Points (PPP) Props: Wagering on a player to record a point (goal or assist) while their team is on a power play.
  • Blocked Shots Props: Betting on the number of shots a player will block, particularly relevant for defensemen.
  • To Score 2+ Goals / Hat Trick: Higher odds props for players to score multiple goals.

Types of NHL Goaltender (Goalie) Props

  • Saves Props: Betting over or under a goalie's projected total saves for the game.
  • To Record a Shutout Props: Wagering on whether a goalie will prevent the opposing team from scoring any goals (Yes/No).
  • Goals Against Props (Less Common): Occasionally, props may be offered on the number of goals a specific goalie will allow, compared to a set line.

Each NHL prop type requires specific analysis, considering player roles, ice time, line combinations, opponent strengths/weaknesses, and special teams play.

Analyzing Player Matchups, Statistics, and Game Situations

Successful NHL player prop betting relies on meticulous data examination. Our AI models evaluate:

  • Skater Stats: Shooting percentage (S%), points per game (P/GP), shots on goal per game (SOG/GP), ice time (TOI), power play ice time (PPTOI), zone starts.
  • Goalie Stats: Save percentage (SV%), goals against average (GAA), quality starts, performance against specific teams.
  • Recent Form: A player's performance and statistical output over their recent games (e.g., point streaks, goal droughts).
  • Line Matchups: Which forward lines and defensive pairings will be on the ice against each other.
  • Opponent Defensive/Offensive Capabilities: How well a team defends against shots, or how many shots they typically generate.
  • Special Teams Performance: A team's power play success rate and penalty kill efficiency directly impact PPP and goal/assist props for players on those units.
  • Goaltender Matchup: The quality of the opposing goaltender can significantly affect goal and point props.
  • Game Script & Situations: Teams trailing might pull their goalie, creating empty-net goal opportunities. Tight games might see top players get more ice time.
  • Injuries: Injuries to key players can shift ice time and offensive responsibilities to others.
This comprehensive approach allows for nuanced projections for player performance in upcoming NHL games.

Finding Value in NHL Player Prop Odds

Comparing Projections to Sportsbook Lines

The core of identifying value in NHL player props is comparing our data-driven statistical projections against the lines and odds set by sportsbooks. While oddsmakers are proficient, our specialized AI models can often uncover discrepancies where the market may have misjudged a player's potential output. When our model projects a higher probability for an outcome than the sportsbook's odds imply, it indicates positive expected value (+EV) and a potentially profitable hockey player prop opportunity.

AI-Powered NHL Player Prop Predictions

Our AI algorithms are specifically trained on vast datasets of historical NHL player performance, game logs, shift data (where available), and numerous contextual factors to generate precise NHL player prop predictions. These are not simply based on averages but utilize sophisticated modeling that considers variance, specific matchups, recent form, ice time, and special teams play, providing an objective assessment of a player's likelihood to go over or under their prop line for stats like shots on goal, points, or saves.

Strategies for Betting NHL Player Props

Developing a robust NHL player prop betting strategy involves several key considerations:

  • Ice Time is King: Players who log significant minutes, especially on top lines and power play units, naturally have more opportunities to accumulate stats.
  • Shot Volume (SOG): For goal and point props, target players who consistently generate a high volume of shots on goal. More shots = more chances.
  • Power Play Merchants: Identify players who thrive on the power play, as these situations offer prime scoring opportunities against a disadvantaged defense. Check their PPTOI.
  • Goalie Matchups: A skater facing a hot goalie or a goalie known for strong performances against their team might struggle. Conversely, facing a backup or struggling goalie can boost skater props. For goalie save props, target goalies facing teams that shoot a lot.
  • Defensive Matchups: Top offensive players facing elite shutdown defensemen or defensive pairings might have a tougher night.
  • Recent Streaks & Slumps: While past performance isn't always indicative of future results, hot streaks (or cold slumps) can be telling, especially if supported by underlying metrics.
  • Game Flow Expectations: If a team is expected to play with a lead, their defensive players might see more blocked shot opportunities. If trailing, offensive players might get more aggressive.
  • Line Shopping: Odds and lines for NHL player props can vary significantly between sportsbooks. Always find the best available number.

Our platform aids this analysis by offering data-driven insights, including "Prob" (Probability) and "Edge" metrics for selected NHL player props.

Maximize Your Edge in NHL Player Prop Betting

Bet Better is your essential guide for navigating the exciting NHL player prop market. By leveraging our AI-driven analytics and expert insights, you gain a powerful tool to identify value-laden bets and construct a more informed betting approach for today's NHL props. Explore our current NHL Player Prop Bets to see today's data-backed predictions. Always remember to gamble responsibly and enjoy the fast-paced action of the NHL.

NHL Player Prop Betting FAQs

What exactly is an NHL Player Prop Bet?

An NHL Player Prop Bet is a wager on an individual player's specific statistical performance within an ice hockey game, rather than on the game's final score or winner. Examples include betting on a player's total goals, assists, points, shots on goal, or a goalie's total saves.

How can Bet Better help me with NHL Player Props?

Bet Better provides data-driven analysis and AI-powered predictions for NHL Player Props. We analyze extensive player, team, matchup, and situational data to calculate the true probability ("Prob") of various player outcomes relative to sportsbook lines. We also highlight the betting value ("Edge") to help you make more informed decisions on NHL prop bets.

What types of NHL player props do you cover?

We cover a broad range of common NHL Player Prop markets. For skaters, this includes Goals, Assists, Points, Shots on Goal (SOG), and Power Play Points (PPP). For goaltenders, we analyze Saves props. We also look at markets like 'Anytime Goal Scorer,' depending on data availability and market offerings.

How do you determine the Probability and Edge for an NHL player prop?

Our AI models process detailed statistics (shooting percentages, save percentages, ice time), historical performance, line matchups, opponent defensive profiles, special teams data, and recent form. They run simulations to project likely statistical outcomes and calculate the probability relative to sportsbook lines. The "Edge" quantifies the value found when our calculated probability differs favorably from the implied probability of the odds.

What are 'Shots on Goal (SOG)' props in NHL betting?

'Shots on Goal (SOG)' props involve betting on whether a specific player will record more (Over) or fewer (Under) shots that officially hit the net than a line set by the sportsbook (e.g., Over/Under 3.5 SOG). A player's role, ice time, shooting tendency, and the opponent's defensive style (e.g., shot suppression) are key factors.

How do 'Points Props' (Goals + Assists) work in the NHL?

'Points Props' in the NHL combine a player's goals and assists into a single statistic. You bet on whether a player's total points in a game will go Over or Under a line set by the sportsbook (e.g., Over/Under 1.5 points). This is popular for top offensive players.

What is an 'Anytime Goal Scorer' prop in hockey?

An 'Anytime Goal Scorer' prop is a straightforward bet on whether a specific player will score at least one goal during the game (regulation and overtime usually included, but check sportsbook rules). Odds vary based on the player's goal-scoring prowess and matchup.

How does Power Play time affect NHL player props?

Power Play time is highly influential for NHL player props. Players on a team's top power play units have a significantly increased chance of recording points (goals and assists via Power Play Points - PPP) and shots on goal due to the man advantage. Analyzing a player's PPTOI (Power Play Time On Ice) and their team's power play efficiency is crucial.

What should I consider for Goalie Save props?

For Goalie Save props, key considerations include the opposing team's shot volume (how many shots they average per game), the goalie's own save percentage and recent form, their team's defensive capabilities (do they allow many shots?), and the game context (is the goalie likely to face a barrage of shots if their team is outmatched or often shorthanded?).

Can I use your NHL player prop picks in Same Game Parlays (SGPs)?

Yes, many sportsbooks allow NHL player props to be included in Same Game Parlays (SGPs). While Bet Better focuses on identifying value in individual prop bets, these insights can inform SGP selections. Be aware that SGPs increase risk and variance, as all legs must win, and understanding the correlation (or lack thereof) between different props in the same game is important.

OddsAPI OddsAPI
Give Feedback