Today's AFL Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Friday 06/20

The bet on Geelong Cats to win against Brisbane Lions is supported by Geelong's dominant home form, averaging 15 points margin and 89.4 points scored in their last five home games. With an average of 52.4 inside 50s and 40.8 total clearances, they have shown the ability to control the game. In contrast, Brisbane's away form sees them with a lower average margin of 3.2 points. Geelong's superior performance in contested possessions and shots at goal, coupled with Brisbane's higher turnovers, suggests Geelong's balanced attack and strong defense could overpower Brisbane. The model's prediction and the statistical trends favor Geelong's ability to secure a victory at GMHBA Stadium.

Collingwood Magpies vs St Kilda Saints : St Kilda Saints 30.5 (-111)

The bet on St Kilda Saints +30.5 is supported by their recent performance metrics. Despite a weaker average margin and points scored compared to Collingwood, St Kilda has shown improvement in their away games. Collingwood's defensive vulnerability, allowing an average of 69.4 points against at home, could give St Kilda opportunities to capitalize and cover the spread. St Kilda's ability to generate inside 50s and shots at goal, coupled with Collingwood's inconsistency in defense, makes the +30.5 line favorable. The model's prediction aligns closely with St Kilda's recent form, indicating a potential for them to keep the game competitive and potentially outperform expectations.

Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers : Under 173.5 Total Points (-114)

The bet on Under 173.5 in the Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers game is supported by the recent performances of both teams. The Western Bulldogs have been averaging 105.6 points in their last five home games but facing a Richmond Tigers side that has tightened their defense, conceding only 76.6 points on average overall. Additionally, the Tigers have struggled to score, averaging just 56.8 points in their last five away games. With the Bulldogs' solid defensive record, allowing only 79.6 points on average overall, and the Tigers' lower scoring potential on the road, the Under looks favorable. The model's prediction of 159.5 points aligns with the recent trends, making the Under 173.5 a logical betting choice.

Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers : Richmond Tigers 48.5 (-111)

The bet on Richmond Tigers +48.5 is supported by their recent away form. Despite averaging a -38 margin in their last five away games, they've limited opponents to 94.8 points on average. In contrast, the Western Bulldogs have a high home points average of 105.6 but concede 65 points on average. The Tigers' ability to keep scores relatively low, coupled with the Bulldogs' defensive vulnerabilities, suggests the Tigers can stay within the generous +48.5 spread. Additionally, the Tigers have shown resilience in their overall performances, indicating they could put up a fight against the Bulldogs, making the +48.5 line favorable in this matchup.

Carlton Blues vs North Melbourne Kangaroos : Carlton Blues Win (-400)

The bet on Carlton Blues to win against North Melbourne Kangaroos is backed by their superior recent form. Carlton's L5 stats show they perform well at home, averaging higher points scored, clearances, contested possessions, inside 50s, and shots at goal compared to North Melbourne's away record. With a higher margin average and solid defensive stats, Carlton is positioned to capitalize on their strengths at the MCG. North Melbourne's struggles away, especially with lower points scored and a negative margin average, further support the bet on Carlton Blues to secure the victory.