Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks : Hawthorn Hawks Win (+117)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The bet on Hawthorn Hawks is supported by their strong away performance compared to Collingwood Magpies' recent home form. Hawthorn has a higher average points for and lower points against in their last five away games, indicating better offensive and defensive capabilities on the road. Additionally, Hawthorn averages more team clearances, contested possessions, inside 50s, and target disposals compared to Collingwood at home, suggesting they can control the game's pace and possession. With a higher margin average in their favor over the last five games, Hawthorn's overall stronger performance metrics make them a favorable choice to win this AFL matchup.

Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers : Essendon Bombers 35.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The bet on Essendon Bombers +35.5 is supported by the team's recent performance metrics. Despite a negative average margin over the last five away games, Essendon has shown competitiveness with an average of 70 points scored. Brisbane, while strong at home, has a lower average points for and a margin of only -4 in their last five home games. Essendon's ability to generate inside 50s and shots at goal, combined with Brisbane's vulnerable defense, suggests Essendon can stay within the +35.5 spread. With Brisbane's average margin at 17 in their last five games overall, Essendon has a chance to cover the spread in this matchup at the Gabba.

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