Today's NBA Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds (Saturday 01/10 Slate)

The bet on Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) is a contrarian play against the model's prediction. Despite being the away team, OKC has a comparable performance to the Memphis Grizzlies in their last 5 games, with a minor difference in score (117.8 vs 118.8). Moreover, both teams have an equal record against each other (2-2) in their last 5 encounters, indicating that OKC can compete effectively against Memphis. The home advantage for Memphis may not be as significant as the model suggests, given that OKC's away score (117) is fairly close to Memphis's home score (124.6). This bet is a calculated risk relying on the statistical parity between the two teams and the potential for OKC to outperform the model's expectation.

Washington Wizards vs New Orleans Pelicans : New Orleans Pelicans Under 132.5 Team Total Points (-500)

The bet on 'New Orleans Pelicans Under 132.5' for the Team Total Points market makes good sense statistically. Firstly, the model prediction for the total points is 109.39, which is significantly lower than the outcome point of 132.5. Secondly, looking at the Pelicans' recent performance, their overall L5 team score is 116.8, and their L5 team score when playing away is 115.8, both of which are considerably below the outcome point. Moreover, their opponent's L5 team score (away) is 104.2, suggesting a competitive game that may limit high scoring. Lastly, their away record shows they won only 3 out of the last 5 games. All these stats indicate a lower probability of the Pelicans scoring over 132.5 points.

Washington Wizards vs New Orleans Pelicans : Washington Wizards win (+120)

The Washington Wizards are a strong bet for the Moneyline market in their game against the New Orleans Pelicans. Despite a challenging recent home record, the Wizards have shown a higher scoring average at home (118) versus the Pelicans' scoring average away (115.8). While the Pelicans have recently performed better overall, the Wizards have demonstrated they can hold their own against this opponent, with a 1-1 record in their last 5 encounters. The model's prediction indicates a sizable 12% edge for the Wizards, suggesting they may be undervalued. Therefore, the Wizards' performance at home and against this specific opponent make them a solid bet.

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors : Boston Celtics win (-345)

The Boston Celtics have a strong record both at home and against the Toronto Raptors, making them a promising bet. In their last five games at home, the Celtics have won all five, compared to the Raptors' 2-3 record in their last five away games. Additionally, the Celtics have won all of their last four matchups against the Raptors. Furthermore, the Celtics' average score in their last five games at home is higher than the Raptors' average away score (119.4 to 110.6), suggesting a stronger offensive performance. Although the teams' overall scores in their last five games are close (112.2 for Celtics and 112.8 for Raptors), the Celtics' home advantage and past performance against the Raptors tilt the scales in their favor.

Washington Wizards vs New Orleans Pelicans : Under 264.5 Total Points (-1250)

The betting rationale for 'Under 264.5' Total Points in the Washington Wizards vs New Orleans Pelicans game is supported by the teams' recent scoring trends. Over their last five games, the Wizards have averaged 115.2 points and the Pelicans 116.8 points. This suggests a combined score of around 232 points, significantly below the total points line of 264.5. Additionally, when playing at home, the Wizards' score drops slightly to 118 points, and the Pelicans' away score is slightly lower at 115.8 points. Furthermore, the predicted model outcome is 221.55 points, which also supports the bet for under 264.5 points. Therefore, based on these scoring trends and the model prediction, it is statistically likely that the total points will be under 264.5.