Today's NFL Best Bets (Tuesday 01/13 Slate)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are an appealing bet in the spreads market given the statistical data at hand. Despite a 0-1 record against the opponent in their last 5 encounters, the Steelers have demonstrated strong form in their recent games. Their overall last 5 (L5) performance shows a score-for of 28.2 points per game versus a score-against of 19.4, resulting in a positive point differential of 8.8. Furthermore, they also have a turnover differential of 1.6, which indicates they have been effective at both protecting the football and forcing turnovers. In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), the Steelers have a significant edge with an overall L5 EPA difference of 10.74, suggesting their plays have resulted in a higher expected point value than their opponents. The model edge of 0.159 also indicates that the betting model sees value in this bet. Lastly, Pittsburgh's impressive 5-0 overall L5 record,

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans : Over 38.5 Total Points (-105)

The Over 38.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game is a well-informed decision given the recent performances of both teams. The home team has averaged 23.2 points in their last five games, while the away team has averaged 28.2 points, a combined score well over the 38.5 point threshold. Additionally, the home team's defense has been conceding an average of 19.6 points per game, and the away team's defense 19.4 points, suggesting both teams will likely score decently. Moreover, both teams have a strong recent record, with the home team winning 4 out of their last 5 games, and the away team unbeaten in their last five games. The model's edge of 0.0637 also implies statistical significance backing the Over bet. Given these factors, betting on an Over 38.5 seems statistically justified.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans : Over 38.5 Total Points (-105)

The 'Over 38.5' bet in the 'totals' market is a promising option considering the recent scoring performances of both teams. The home team's last five games averaged 23.2 points scored and the away team averaged 28.2 points scored, both comfortably above the outcome point of 38.5. Furthermore, the home team's recent defensive performance has allowed 19.6 points per game on average, and the away team's has allowed 19.4, further supporting the potential for a high scoring game. In terms of yards gained, both teams are also performing above average, with 363.2 yards for the home team and 327.6 yards for the away team over their last five games respectively. Additionally, the low turnover rates for both teams suggest that offensive possessions are likely to end in scoring plays rather than turnovers. Finally, both teams have strong recent records, with the home team at 4-1 and the away team at