Expert breakdown for New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons. Featuring 6 team bets with value. Discover NFL best bets, spreads, totals, moneyline picks, team props.
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on the New England Patriots with a -5.5 spread is supported by the team's recent performance data. Over their last five games, the Patriots have maintained a strong overall score, averaging 30.6 points per game compared to their opponents' 15.6 points. This results in an impressive point differential of 15, much larger than the -5.5 spread. The Patriots have also demonstrated a consistently strong offense, with an average of 357.8 total yards scored per game, and a notable advantage in the turnover department (1 turnover for vs 1.6 turnovers against). Comparatively, the opposing team has struggled, with a negative point differential (-9.4) and lower average score (15.6). Their offensive performance has also been weaker, with an average of 343 total yards scored per game. Considering these statistics, it is reasonable to bet on the Patriots outperforming their opponents by at least 5.5 points.
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : NA -5.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly supports the bet on New England Patriots with a -5.5 spread. Over the last 5 games, the Patriots have outperformed their opponents, with a home overall score of 30.6 against 15.6, a point difference of 15. They have also had a lower turnover rate and a higher total yardage. In addition, their home overall EPA (Expected Points Added) difference is 16.91, indicating they are consistently adding more points than they are allowing. Their home record is also solid with a 5-0 in their last 5 games. Conversely, the away team has struggled, with a score against of 25 and a negative point difference of -9.4 in their last 5 games. Their overall EPA difference is -11.74, showing they are allowing more points than they are scoring. Their overall record is 2-3, further indicating their struggles. The statistical data points to a strong performance
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Carolina Panthers with a 12.5 spread is statistically sound looking at the performance data. The Panthers have shown solid performance in their recent games, with a 3-2 overall record in their last five games and a 4-1 record at home. This indicates a strong home advantage that should factor into this matchup. Additionally, their score differential in recent home games is +12.8, greater than the spread, suggesting they can win by a comfortable margin. Contrarily, the away team has a score differential of -9.4 in their last five games and -7.4 in their recent away games, indicating a struggle to outscore opponents. They also have a negative turnover differential, which could provide additional scoring opportunities for the Panthers. Finally, in the last five encounters between these two teams, the Panthers have come out on top. Overall, the statistical data supports the bet on the Panthers with a 12.5 spread.
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Miami Dolphins are given a 7.5 point spread in their favor, which seems a reasonable bet considering the difference in both teams' last five games performance. The Dolphins have been outscored by an average of 11.8 points in their last five games, while the home team's score difference is exactly zero. Furthermore, the Dolphins have a negative turnover difference (-1.4) compared to the home team's zero turnover difference. The home team also has a better home record (3-2) compared to the Dolphins' away record (2-3). In terms of EPA (Expected Points Added), the Dolphins are significantly underperforming, with a total EPA difference of -15.46 compared to the home team's 0.319. This indicates that the Dolphins are not only failing to prevent their opponents from scoring, but they're also struggling to put points on the board themselves. Given these stats, betting on the Dolphins to not lose by more than 7
Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens : NA +7.5 Point Spread (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Miami Dolphins are favored by 7.5 points in the spread market, with a model edge of 9.2% suggesting an advantage for betting on Miami. Looking into the last five games, the Dolphins' away performance is stronger than their opponent's home performance. The Dolphins averaged 30.2 points per game against 24.2 for their opponents, a positive point differential of 6. While the Dolphins' Expected Points Added (EPA) for was 14.4 against 4.8 for their opponents, resulting in a 9.6 differential. This highlights that the Dolphins have been more efficient in converting their possessions into points. Furthermore, the Dolphins' away turnover differential is -1 compared to their opponents' 0.2 at home, which indicates that the Dolphins have been better at protecting the ball. All these factors together provide a compelling statistical rationale for placing a bet on the Miami Dolphins covering the 7.5-point spread.
Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers : NA +12.5 Point Spread (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Carolina Panthers with a 12.5 spread seems statistically sound given the provided data. The Panthers' overall L5 performance has been better, with a higher score for (27.8 vs. 18.4) and lower score against (23.8 vs. 27.8) compared to the away team. Furthermore, their L5 point differential is significantly better (4 vs. -9.4). When it comes to the expected points added (EPA), the Panthers have demonstrated a stronger offensive and defensive game both overall and at home. Their overall EPA for and against are 11.43 and 5.17 respectively, compared to -2.71 and 9.15 for the away team. Moreover, the Panthers' home record is 4-1, indicating their strong performance at home. The model also gives them an edge of 0.0899. Considering these factors, the Panthers appear to be a strong bet in the spreads market.
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Get Bet Better Pro