What is a point spread in sports betting?

A point spread is a handicap set by bookmakers to equalize the perceived difference in strength between two teams. The favorite is 'giving' points, and the underdog is 'getting' points. You bet on which team will win *after* the spread is applied to the final score.

What does 'covering the spread' mean?

Covering the spread means that the team you bet on won the game after the point spread is factored into the final score. If you bet on the favorite, they must win by *more* than the spread. If you bet on the underdog, they must lose by *less* than the spread or win outright.

How are odds usually set for point spread bets?

Point spread bets typically have odds set around -110 for both sides of the wager. This indicates the bookmaker's commission or Vig. You need to wager $110 to win $100 profit at these odds.

What happens if the game ends exactly on the spread number (a push)?

If, after applying the point spread, the score results in a tie, it's called a 'push.' In the case of a push, all bets on the point spread are typically refunded.

How can Bet Better help me with point spread betting?

Bet Better's advanced models don't just predict winners; they project the likely margin of victory. By comparing our predicted margin to the bookmaker's point spread, we identify bets where the spread may be inaccurate, highlighting potential value bets with positive expected value (+EV) against the spread.

Point Spread Betting Explained: A Beginner's Guide

Point spread betting is the most popular form of wagering on sports like football and basketball. Instead of simply picking the winner, the point spread creates a handicap between the favorite and the underdog, aiming to level the playing field and make betting on either side equally appealing from the bookmaker's perspective. Understanding how the spread works is essential for betting these sports.

1. The Concept of the Point Spread

The point spread is a number set by the bookmaker that the favorite must win by, or that the underdog can lose by (or win outright), for a bet on that team to win. It's represented by a plus (+) or minus (-) sign next to the number.

Example: NFL Game

Team A -7

Team B +7

In this example, Team A is the favorite, giving 7 points. Team B is the underdog, getting 7 points.

If you bet on the favorite (Team A), they must win by 8 points or more for your bet to win (they "cover the spread"). If you bet on the underdog (Team B), they must either win the game outright or lose by 6 points or less for your bet to win (they "cover the spread").

2. Covering the Spread, Not Covering, and Pushes

There are three possible outcomes for a point spread bet:

**Covering the Spread:** Your chosen team wins after the spread is factored in. This is a winning bet.
**Not Covering the Spread:** Your chosen team loses after the spread is factored in. This is a losing bet.
**Push:** After applying the spread, the score is tied. This results in a refund of your bet (stakes are returned).

Example (using Team A -7 vs Team B +7):

If Team A wins 28-20 (8-point difference): Team A (-7) covers (28 - 7 = 21 > 20). Team B (+7) does not cover (20 + 7 = 27 > 28).
If Team A wins 24-20 (4-point difference): Team A (-7) does not cover (24 - 7 = 17 < 20). Team B (+7) covers (20 + 7 = 27 > 24).
If Team A wins 27-20 (7-point difference): Team A (-7) ties the spread (27 - 7 = 20). Team B (+7) ties the spread (20 + 7 = 27). This is a **Push**.

3. Point Spread Odds (The Juice)

Point spread bets are typically offered with odds around -110 for both sides. This -110 is the standard Vig or juice, representing the bookmaker's commission. At -110 odds, you must wager $110 to win $100 profit. If you bet $10, you would win approximately $9.09 profit.

Calculating Payout at -110:

Profit = Stake / (Odds / 100)

Example: $100 bet at -110

Profit = $100 / (110 / 100) = $100 / 1.1 = $90.91 profit

Total Payout = Stake + Profit = $100 + $90.91 = $190.91

This fixed odds structure, unlike Moneyline odds which vary based on perceived strength, reinforces that the bookmaker's edge comes from the Vig, not from needing one side to win.

4. Strategy and Finding Value in Point Spreads

Successful point spread betting isn't just about guessing the winner; it's about determining if the bookmaker's spread is accurate or if there's an opportunity to capitalize on a perceived inaccuracy. You need to assess if a favorite is *truly* likely to win by more than the spread, or if an underdog can keep the game closer than the spread suggests.

Finding value in point spreads involves analyzing factors that influence the margin of victory, such as team matchups, injuries, recent form, and situational factors.

How Bet Better Helps: Bet Better's analytical models go beyond simple win probabilities. They simulate game outcomes to project the likely margin of victory. By comparing our projected margin to the bookmaker's point spread, we can identify situations where the spread might be off, highlighting potential positive expected value (+EV) bets against the spread.

Conclusion: Spreads Add Nuance, Analytics Add Edge

Point spread betting adds a layer of complexity and excitement by focusing on the margin of victory. While the concept is simple, consistently beating the spread requires sharp analysis to determine if the handicap is set correctly. By leveraging data-driven tools and analytics, you can gain a deeper understanding of expected margins and identify point spread bets that offer a genuine edge over the bookmaker's line.

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