Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Picks : Stat-Based Insights

Reilly O'Brien is poised to excel in the upcoming game against Collingwood at Adelaide Oval. With a model predicting him to exceed 9.5 disposals by 2.8%, supported by his recent performance averaging 10.8 disposals in his last five home games. His proficiency in contested possessions (6.8 avg) and disposal efficiency (62.7%) further bolster this bet. Additionally, facing Collingwood, where he has averaged 10.3 disposals in their last five encounters, strengthens the case for O'Brien to surpass the set line. His consistent form, with a 90% hit rate in the last ten games, indicates a high probability of him achieving over 9.5 disposals in this home fixture.

Josh Daicos (Collingwood) Over 19.5 Disposals (-588)

Josh Daicos presents a strong case to surpass 19.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows. With a model predicting him to reach 25.4 disposals, showing a 2.5% edge, and an implied probability of 85.5%, Daicos' recent form bolsters this bet. In his last 5 away games, he has averaged 25.6 disposals, exceeded the line in 16 out of his last 18 away matches, and has a history of 12 hits in his last 14 games overall. Facing the Crows, where he averages 24.7 disposals, Daicos is poised to maintain his consistent performance, making the Over a favorable choice for this matchup at Adelaide Oval.

Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-385)

Ben Keays is a solid bet to score anytime in the Adelaide vs. Collingwood game based on his recent form. With an average of 1.2 goals in his last 5 home games and an impressive 7.2 score involvements per game, Keays has been a key offensive contributor. Additionally, his 36.6% goal accuracy at home indicates a good chance of converting his opportunities. Facing Collingwood, against whom he has scored on average in the last 5 encounters, Keays' form makes him a reliable choice to snag a goal. With his consistent shot generation (3.2 shots at goal per game), Keays is well-positioned to split the middle and deliver for Adelaide.

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies : Adelaide Crows -8.5 (-110)

The bet on Adelaide Crows -8.5 is supported by their strong recent form at home, where they have been dominant with an average margin of 36 points and an impressive 95.4 points scored per game. In contrast, Collingwood Magpies have struggled on the road, averaging a margin of only 3.8 points and scoring just 72.6 points per game away. Adelaide's ability to generate inside 50s and shots at goal consistently, coupled with Collingwood's lower scoring output and defensive vulnerability, suggest that Adelaide has the potential to cover the spread comfortably. The data indicates that Adelaide's offensive prowess and Collingwood's defensive frailties make the -8.5 line a favorable bet in this matchup at Adelaide Oval.

Nick Daicos (Collingwood) Over 24.5 Disposals (-400)

Nick Daicos is a standout choice for the Over 24.5 disposals bet. His recent form indicates a consistent performance with an average of 31.4 disposals in his last five away games. Facing the Adelaide Crows, against whom he averages 32 disposals in the same period, Daicos is poised to exceed the line. His proficiency is highlighted by a solid contested possessions average of 10.2 and a high disposal efficiency of 70.8%. With a current hit streak of 2 and an impressive 9/10 hit rate in his last 10 games, Daicos is likely to capitalize on his form and playing style to secure ample possessions, making the Over a strong bet with a 1.0% model edge.