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AFL

Jason Horne-Francis

Port Adelaide

+18.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 21.5 -125 (1.80)
+18.7% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Sun 12 Apr, 9:15AM
Model Probability
74.3%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+18.7%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Under 21.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between Port Adelaide Power and St Kilda Saints, the spotlight falls on Jason Horne-Francis, who's been a consistent performer in recent games. Despite his impressive form, the data suggests a strategic play on the Under 21.5 disposals for Horne-Francis. Over his last five home games, he's averaged 19.2 disposals, slightly below the projected line. Against St Kilda specifically, he's recorded 24 disposals on average in his last five encounters, but his overall trend sits at 20.2 disposals per game. Additionally, his disposalefficiency hovers at 57.7%, indicating potential variability in his output. With a model prediction of 18.2 disposals and a solid 18.7% edge, Horne-Francis may fall just short of the 21.5 mark, making the Under a compelling bet for this matchup at Adelaide Oval.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (6 picks) 16.7% (1/6)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
15 Mar 26 Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 12.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
15 Mar 26 Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 13.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
15 Mar 26 Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -286 ✗ MISS
15 Mar 26 Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals Pending
13 Jul 25 West Coast Eagles @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending
05 Jul 25 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Goals Pending

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About This Player

Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 6 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 16.7% (1/6). The latest model pick for Jason Horne-Francis is Under 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power on Sunday 12 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.