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AFL

Riley Thilthorpe

Adelaide Crows

+8.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -182 (1.55)
+8.2% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Fri 20 Mar, 8:40AM
Model Probability
72.7%
Implied Probability
64.5%
Model Edge
+8.2%
Predicted Value
2.0 Goals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) Over 1.5 Goals (-182)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Riley Thilthorpe for the Adelaide Crows facing off against the Western Bulldogs at the Adelaide Oval. Thilthorpe has been a scoring machine lately, bagging an impressive average of 2.6 goals in his last five home games. With a sharp eye for goal, boasting an 81.0% accuracy, he's been a force to reckon with inside 50, averaging 1.6 marks in that zone. His recent form against the Bulldogs has also been solid, notching an average of 2 goals per game. Thilthorpe's attacking prowess is further highlighted by his current hit streak of 4 goals in 4 games overall. With the model predicting him to snag 2 goals in this matchup and the line set at 1.5, the Over on Thilthorpe's goal tally looks like a savvy bet with a strong statistical backing. Get on board with Thilthorpe to snag more than 1.5 goals in this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (8 picks) 87.5% (7/8)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Goals 1.5 Over -182 ✓ HIT
20 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✗ MISS
14 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 1.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Collingwood Magpies Goals Pending
12 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Adelaide Crows Goals Pending
12 Jul 25 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Goals Pending

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About This Player

Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 8 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 87.5% (7/8). The latest model pick for Riley Thilthorpe is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.2% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows on Friday 20 March at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.