Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Friday 04/17 (5-Leg) Featuring Moussa Diabate!: Calculated Risk, High Reward

As the Warriors head into Phoenix, all eyes will be on Draymond Green, but betting on him to eclipse 7.5 assists might be a stretch. While he's been a playmaker at home, his away numbers tell a different story. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 6.6 assists on the road, and against the Suns, that drops to a mere 3.4. With Green's recent trends showing he's gone under this total in 13 of his last 17 away games, it's hard to see him breaking through against a Phoenix defense that knows how to limit playmakers. Even when he's been effective, his assist average has dipped to 4.6 in terms of expected value. Given the context and the consistent pattern of underperformance, betting the under on 7.5 assists feels not just safe but smart.

Jalen Green (Phoenix Suns) Under 22.5 Points (-238)

When the Phoenix Suns host the Golden State Warriors, all eyes will be on Jalen Green as he looks to make an impact. However, betting on the under for his points at 22.5 could be a smart move. In recent matchups against the Warriors, Green has struggled, averaging just 9.6 points over his last five games against them, and it's even lower at home with a mere 14.6. Green's recent performances also suggest he's not quite hitting his scoring stride; he's averaged 20 points over his last five games, and at home, that bumps slightly to 20.4. With a hit rate of 12 out of 17 games going under this mark at home, there's a strong case to believe he'll fall short again. Given these trends, betting the under seems not only reasonable but likely to pay off when the final buzzer sounds.

Desmond Bane (Orlando Magic) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-222)

As we dive into the matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Charlotte Hornets, targeting Desmond Bane for under 30.5 points, rebounds, and assists makes a lot of sense. Bane has been solid lately, averaging 17.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 3 assists over his last five games. However, when we look closer at his performance against the Hornets, he typically averages just 17.6 points, and his home stats dip even lower to 16.2 points.Moreover, Bane's contributions tend to dwindle in Orlando, with home averages showing 3 boards and 4 assists, which simply don't stack up to the lofty 30.5 threshold. With a robust hit rate of 4 out of 5 in his last outings and a perfect 3 for 3 at home, it's clear that while Bane can shine, he likely won't eclipse that combined number against a Hornets team that plays tough defense

Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors) Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-213)

As the Golden State Warriors hit the court against the Phoenix Suns, all eyes will be on Gui Santos, especially when considering the under on his combined points and rebounds of 20.5. While Santos has shown flashes of promise, his recent form has been less than stellar, averaging just 14.8 points and 4.8 rebounds over his last five games. On the road, those numbers dip to an even more modest 11.8 points and 6.4 rebounds. Facing the Suns, Santos has historically struggled, averaging just 7.2 points against them, and on the road, that figure drops slightly to 8.2. With a strong hit rate of 3 out of his last 4 games falling under this mark and a solid away hit rate of 6 out of 8, betting the under on Santos feels like a smart move here. The data suggests he won't exceed that 20.5 threshold in this challenging matchup.