Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns Prediction & Picks : Stat-Based Insights

Callum Ah Chee, with a model-predicted 1.1 goals, faces the Gold Coast Suns at home. His recent form shows promise with an average of 0.4 goals in his last 5 home games. Against this opponent, he's been even more prolific, averaging 1.3 goals in the same 5-game span. With an implied probability of 68.5% to score, Ah Chee's involvement in scoring opportunities, seen through his 5.6 score involvements per game, makes him a strong candidate to snag a goal. His ability to create shots at goal (2.6 average) and marks inside 50 (1.2 average) further support his potential to hit the scoreboard. Betting on Ah Chee to score anytime seems like a solid choice given his recent performances and matchup history.

Alex Davies (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-200)

Alex Davies is poised to excel in disposals against the Brisbane Lions based on his recent form. With a strong model prediction of 17.8 disposals and a 7.6% edge, his consistent statistics in contested possessions, kicks, and handballs, averaging 17.2 disposals in his last five away games, make the Over 14.5 a compelling bet. Davies' impressive 63.2% disposal efficiency and a hit streak of 5/5 away games further support his potential to surpass the line. Facing an opponent where he has averaged 16.3 disposals in their last encounters, Davies is likely to continue his dominance in this matchup, making the Over a smart choice.

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-200)

Daniel Rioli is a strong bet to surpass 14.5 disposals against Brisbane. With a model prediction of 17.7 disposals and a 7.1% edge, Rioli's recent form supports this. In his last five away games, he has averaged 15.6 disposals, with a high of 19.5 against Brisbane. His consistency is evident with an overall average of 16.4 disposals. Rioli's ability to find the ball, coupled with his high disposalefficiency of 74.5%, suggests he will impact the game positively. Considering his recent performances and historical data against Brisbane, Rioli is poised to exceed the 14.5 disposal line.

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-345)

Zac Bailey is a solid bet to snag a goal in the Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns matchup. In his last 5 home games, Bailey has averaged 1.6 goals, showing consistent scoring form. With an average of 3.6 shots at goal and 8.4 score involvements per game, Bailey is actively involved in the Lions' forward line, increasing his goal-scoring opportunities. Additionally, his goal accuracy of 31.3% at home is below his overall average, suggesting room for improvement and potentially more goals in this game. Facing an opponent against whom he averages 0.7 goals at home, Bailey's past performance and the matchup dynamics make him a strong candidate to hit the scoreboard.

Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns : Brisbane Lions Win (-169)

The bet on Brisbane Lions to win against Gold Coast Suns is supported by their strong recent form and statistical advantages. Brisbane Lions have shown solid performances in their last five home games, averaging higher points scored, clearances, inside 50s, and shots at goal compared to Gold Coast Suns' away performances. With a higher average margin and points scored at home, Brisbane Lions have a clear offensive edge. Additionally, Brisbane's ability to control possessions with higher contested possessions and intercepts further strengthens their position. These statistical advantages, especially in key offensive metrics, suggest that Brisbane Lions are well-positioned to secure a victory in this matchup at the Gabba.