Andrei Iosivas (CIN) Under 1.5 Receptions (-133)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Andrei Iosivas for under 1.5 receptions in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Arizona Cardinals can be justified by his recent performance and hit rates. Iosivas has an overall hit rate of 2/3 in his last three games and a 1/1 hit rate against the Cardinals. His overall hit rate in the last five games is 3/5, but this drops to 2/5 when playing at home. The model also gives a 0.173 edge for this outcome. Iosivas's overall hit rate in the last 10 games is 50%, but again, this decreases to 30% in home games. His current hit streak is 2 overall, but only 1 at home, suggesting his performance may be less consistent there. Thus, considering these stats and his varying performance at home, betting on Iosivas for under 1.5 receptions seems a reasonable choice.
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 19.5 Player rush yds alternate (+474)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data suggests that betting on Joe Burrow to rush for over 19.5 yards in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market may not be a prudent choice. Burrow's recent performance indicates a lack of success in this area, with an overall hit rate of 0/5 in the last 5 games, and a current hit streak of 0. His performance at home is slightly better, with a hit rate of 1/5 in the last 5 games, but it's still not convincing. Furthermore, Burrow's performance against the Arizona Cardinals shows no success in surpassing the 19.5 rushing yards mark. His overall hit rate of 11/52 is also not encouraging. The model edge of 0.154980284311053, although positive, is relatively low and does not drastically increase the chances of this bet being successful. Therefore, the statistics do not favor this bet.
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Joe Burrow for Over 4.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market for the Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals game presents mixed signals. On the one hand, Burrow's hit rate is not encouraging in the short term, with a current overall hit streak of 0 and an overall hit rate last 5 of 0/5. However, his performance at home is considerably better, with a home hit rate last 5 of 3/5 and a home hit rate overall of 15/23. This implies that Burrow performs better in home games, which is relevant since the Bengals are the home team this match. Moreover, Burrow has a perfect hit rate against the Cardinals (1/1), although this is a small sample size. The model edge of 0.138 suggests that there is value in this bet. Therefore, while recent form is poor, historical home performance and the Cardinals-specific data gives some reason for optimism.
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