Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning : Under 10.5 Total Goals (-5000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The rationale for betting on 'Under 10.5' in the Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning game lies in the recent performance and scoring averages of both teams. The Panthers, in their last five home games, average 3.2 goals, while the Lightning average 3.2 goals in their last five away games. This gives an expected combined total of 6.4 goals, well below the line of 10.5. Furthermore, defensive data suggests a low-scoring match, with the Panthers' goals against average being 2.6 and the Lightning's at 2.6 as well. This suggests solid defensive capabilities, further reducing the likelihood of a high scoring game. The model prediction of 1.33 also indicates a game with fewer goals. Therefore, based on both teams' latest performances and the model's prediction, it is statistically reasonable to bet on 'Under 10.5' for this game.
Sam Bennett (Florida Panthers) Under 2.5 Shots On Goal (-169)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Sam Bennett for under 2.5 in the 'Player Shots On Goal' market is rationalized by several factors. Firstly, the model prediction of 1.47 is significantly below the line of 2.5, suggesting that Bennett is unlikely to exceed this threshold based on his recent performance. The standard deviation of 1.37 also implies consistency in Bennett's lower shot count. In his last five home games, Bennett has averaged 1.6 shots on goal and his overall average is even lower at 1.4, both of which are under the line. Although Bennett's hit streaks and hit rates show some variability, they still consistently fall below 2.5. Considering these factors, the statistical data supports the bet for Sam Bennett to not exceed 2.5 shots on goal in this game.
Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning : Tampa Bay Lightning win (+112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Tampa Bay Lightning is supported by several key points. Firstly, Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers have identical overall and home/away records (3-2), indicating a close competition. However, Tampa Bay has demonstrated greater offensive stability with a higher EVgoals average (2.6 vs. 2.4) in away games. Moreover, Tampa Bay has a lower average goals against (2.6 vs. 2.8), suggesting a slightly stronger defensive line. Despite Florida's advantage in assists, the main objective is scoring goals where Tampa Bay has matched Florida in away games (3.2 Goals Avg for both). Furthermore, the model prediction of 0.6 leans towards Tampa Bay, and a 12.9% model edge indicates clear potential for a profitable bet. In conclusion, considering both teams' close performance and Tampa Bay's slight edges in key areas, the bet on Tampa Bay Lightning seems justified.
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