Filip Forsberg (Nashville Predators) Under 3.5 Shots On Goal (-182)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Filip Forsberg for Under 3.5 in the 'Player Shots On Goal' market is backed by a blend of recent performance data and model predictions. The model's prediction of 2.4 shots is significantly under the line of 3.5. This under prediction is further substantiated by Forsberg's average shots in the last 5 away games, which was 2.6, still under the bet line. Although his overall shots average in the last 5 games is 3.6, it's worth noting his current away games hit streak is at 3, indicating consistent underperformance in away settings. His hit rate in the last 3 away games is also perfect, strengthening the under bet. Considering these factors, Forsberg's performance in away games supports the model's prediction and makes the under 3.5 bet a reasonable choice.
Minnesota Wild vs Nashville Predators : Nashville Predators +1.5 (-147)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale behind choosing 'Nashville Predators 1.5' in the Puck Line market is based on the comparative L5 stats, records and model's prediction. Both Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators have similar L5 records, with 1-4 in both home/away and overall games. However, Nashville has a more favorable L5 vs Opponent Record, with 3 wins against 2 losses. Furthermore, Minnesota Wild has a higher Goals Against Avg (3.6) compared to Nashville Predators (3.2 in away games and 3.4 overall), meaning they tend to concede more goals. The model also predicts a positive edge for Nashville (3.7%), implying a higher probability of them covering the puck line. These statistical insights suggest that Nashville Predators are likely to stay within 1.5 goals in the game, making them a good pick for the bet.
Minnesota Wild vs Nashville Predators : Nashville Predators win (+172)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the Nashville Predators is supported by their comparative performance against the Minnesota Wild. Despite the identical L5 records, the Predators have shown a slight edge over the Wild in their recent head-to-head encounters, with a 3-2 record. The Predators' offense, represented by 'Goals For Avg' in the last five games, is also slightly higher than the Wild's. This suggests a greater scoring potential which could prove decisive in a close match. Moreover, the Predators have allowed slightly fewer goals on average, indicating stronger defensive play. The model prediction giving a 0.54 probability to the Predators also supports this bet, indicating a statistical likelihood of a Predators' win. Overall, the Predators' slightly better head-to-head record, offensive efficiency, and defensive strength provide the rationale for this bet.
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