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NBA

Alperen Sengun

Houston Rockets

+12.3% Edge
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits
Latest Pick
Rebounds Under 11.5 -455 (1.22)
+12.3% Edge
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets
Toyota Center, Houston
Sun 22 Mar, 12:00AM
Model Probability
94.2%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+12.3%
Predicted Value
7.7 Rebounds

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets) Under 11.5 Rebounds (-455)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Rockets prepare to host the Heat, all eyes will be on Alperen Sengun's rebounding prowess. While he's shown flashes of brilliance, the numbers suggest a decline in his effectiveness on the boards lately. Over his last five games, he's averaging a modest 6.6 rebounds, and in the friendly confines of Houston, that number ticks up to 7.6. However, against the Heat, who typically present a tougher challenge on the glass, Sengun has pulled down only 8 boards at home. What's particularly compelling is that his expected stat value sits at just 7.68, well below the 11.5 mark. With an impressive hit rate of 3/3 for the under in his last outings, the signs are clear. Betting on Sengun to stay under 11.5 rebounds feels like a savvy move as the Rockets look to outpace Miami, but Sengun might just find himself focusing more on scoring than cleaning the glass

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (19 picks) 47.4% (9/19)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Mar 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets Points 17.5 Over -123 ✓ HIT
12 Mar 26 Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets Assists 8.5 Under -1111 ✓ HIT
11 Mar 26 Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets Pts + Rebs 26.5 Over -130 ✗ MISS
11 Mar 26 Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets Points Pending
09 Mar 26 Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs Pending
07 Mar 26 Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 19 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 47.4% (9/19). Alperen Sengun is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Alperen Sengun is Under 11.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.3% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets on Sunday 22 March at Toyota Center, Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.