Pittsburgh Penguins vs Carolina Hurricanes : Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 (-233)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 in the 'Puck Line' market is driven by the comparative performance of both teams. Over their last five games, the Penguins have struggled, with both home and overall records of 0-5. However, their average goals against is 4.2 at home and 3.8 overall, suggesting they typically lose by a relatively narrow margin. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, have a strong recent record (4-1 away, 3-2 overall), but their goals average is not significantly higher (1.8 away, 1.4 overall) than the Penguins' goals for average (1.6 at home, 1 overall). This indicates that their victories are also often by narrow margins. Given these stats, the model predicts a close game, justifying a bet on the Penguins with a +1.5 puck line, which would win if the Penguins either win or lose by only one goal.
Stuart Skinner (Edmonton Oilers) Under 25.5 Saves (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Stuart Skinner's recent performance data support a bet on under 25.5 saves. Over his last five home games, Skinner averaged 22 saves, which is below the line set by the bookmaker. His average shots against him during home games is only slightly higher at 24.6, indicating Skinner is not typically challenged with significantly more shots that would increase his save opportunities. His overall performance also aligns with this trend, as he made an average of 22 saves against 25.4 shots across all games. Furthermore, Skinner's hit rate at home is high, hitting the under in 7 out of his last 8 home games. The model prediction of 23.99 saves, although close to the line, still leans towards the under. All these factors combined suggest a higher probability of Skinner finishing the game with under 25.5 saves.
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