Austin Wells (NYY) Under 0.5 Doubles (-833)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Giants gear up to host the Yankees, all eyes will be on Austin Wells, but don’t expect him to rack up doubles in this matchup. The Giants’ pitching has been surprisingly effective lately, particularly their left-handed arms, which have kept extra-base hits to a minimum. Wells, while showing flashes of talent, has struggled against southpaws like the Giants' top starter. His recent trends reflect a tendency to ground out or fly out rather than drive the ball into the gaps. With only a handful of doubles this season, the odds of him notching even one against a disciplined San Francisco staff seem stacked against him. Combine that with the Giants’ stellar defense, and the under on 0.5 doubles strikes me as the smart play. The numbers back it up, but the eye test tells a similar story; this is a matchup where Wells will likely fall short.

Aaron Judge (NYY) Under 1.5 Hits (-244)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Yankees roll into San Francisco, all eyes will be on Aaron Judge, but this might be a night for the under on his hits. The Giants’ pitching staff has been quietly effective at home, with an impressive 3.40 ERA. They’ve been particularly tough on right-handed hitters, and Judge, despite his power, has faced some stiff competition lately—he's hitting just .225 in his last ten games. Moreover, Judge's recent struggles against lefties should raise a few eyebrows, especially with the Giants potentially deploying a southpaw, whose deceptive angles and ability to mix pitches could keep him off balance. With the model predicting just 0.58 hits for him, the odds are favoring the under, reflecting a solid chance he’ll fall short of that 1.5 mark tonight. Given the circumstances, backing the under looks like a savvy move.

Patrick Bailey (NA) Under 0.5 Doubles (-833)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Giants prepare to face the Yankees, all eyes will be on Patrick Bailey, especially considering his recent struggles with extra-base hits. While the young catcher has shown flashes of potential, he’s found himself mired in a slump, with just a handful of doubles this season. Against a Yankees pitching staff that has been surprisingly effective lately, particularly with lefties, Bailey might find it difficult to get the ball in the gaps. The New York bullpen has also excelled at limiting extra-base hits, making it even tougher for opposing batters to find their rhythm. Given these factors, betting on Bailey to stay under 0.5 doubles feels like the right call. With an implied probability of nearly 90% backing this wager, it’s hard to overlook the trends at play. Expect a tight game where Bailey may struggle to make a significant impact with the bat.

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