St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Over 0.5 alternate_team_totals (-2500)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Chicago Cubs have a strong recent scoring record, averaging 6.8 runs overall and 5.6 runs in away games over their last five matches. This offensive prowess is further indicated by their average of over 10 hits per game in both overall and away scenarios. The St. Louis Cardinals, on the other hand, have struggled defensively, allowing an average of 4.4 runs overall in their last five games, and their record against the Cubs is poor, with just one win in the last five encounters. Despite a better home record, the Cardinals' pitching has been inconsistent, with an average of 3.6 walks per game. Therefore, the bet on the Cubs to score over 0.5 runs is backed by their strong offensive performance and the Cardinals' defensive vulnerabilities.
Sonny Gray (STL) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1429)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Sonny Gray's recent performance supports the over 2.5 hits allowed bet. His last five games' overall average hits allowed is 4.2, nearly double the line. His home average is even higher at 4.6 and against the Cubs, it rises to 4.8. Furthermore, Gray's innings pitched (IP) averages are consistently above 5, allowing ample opportunities for hits. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, indicate a consistent trend of allowing hits. Despite an average of around 17 outs per game, the number of hits allowed remains high. The data suggests Gray's pitching allows for a significant number of hits, making the over 2.5 hits bet a statistically sound choice.
Sonny Gray (STL) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-1667)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Sonny Gray has been performing remarkably well, especially in his home games. His last five overall average strikeouts (SO) is 5.8, significantly higher than the line of 2.5. When playing at home, his average SO jumps to 7.2, further supporting the over bet. His performance against the Cubs is even more impressive, with an average of 8 SO in their last five encounters. His current hit streak is at 53, and at home, it's 28. This means he's been consistently delivering high strikeouts. The high implied probability of 94.3% indicates that the likelihood of this bet winning is extremely high. Thus, based on his past performance, current form, and consistency, betting over 2.5 on Sonny Gray's strikeouts is a statistically sound choice.
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