Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) Under 17.5 Disposals (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Lachie Weller's recent performance, especially in away games, indicates a trend supporting the under on his disposals. Despite a solid average of 12.6 disposals in away games, his historical data against Fremantle and overall stats suggest he may struggle to reach 17.5. With a model prediction of 14.5 and a model edge of 19.3%, the data indicates a favorable opportunity to bet under. Weller's lower contested possessions (4.2) against this opponent and turnovers (1.8) also contribute to the rationale. Coupled with his away hit streak of 5 and a solid 83.0% disposal efficiency, the under bet on Lachie Weller for disposals appears statistically sound for this matchup.
Ben Ainsworth (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-145)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ben Ainsworth is a strong bet to score anytime against Fremantle based on his recent form. In his last five away games, he has averaged 1 goal, 2 shots at goal, and 5.2 score involvements. Ainsworth's consistent goal-scoring ability, with an average goal accuracy of 43.3% and 0.8 marks inside 50 per game, makes him a potent threat. Facing Fremantle, where he has averaged 0 goals in his last five matchups, Ainsworth will be motivated to improve upon his record. With an edge of 18.0% according to the model, Ainsworth's scoring potential aligns well with his recent performance metrics, making him a favorable choice to snag a goal in this game.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Under 15.5 Disposals (-119)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Patrick Dangerfield is predicted to achieve 12.5 disposals with a model edge of 17.9%, making the under 15.5 disposals bet appealing. Despite averaging 14.6 disposals in his last five home games, he faces a tougher opponent in the Brisbane Lions, against whom he averages 18.4 disposals. Considering his recent turnovers (2.6 per game) and the Lions' pressure, his stats suggest he may fall short of the line. With a solid contested possessions average of 8.8 but recent overall disposals averaging 16.6, the under bet on Dangerfield is supported by a potential decrease in output against a formidable Brisbane side.
Ethan Read (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-200)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ethan Read is a strong bet to score anytime in the upcoming match based on his recent away game performance. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games and 33.3% goal accuracy, Read consistently finds the big sticks. His ability to generate shots at goal (2.4 average) and be involved in scoring opportunities (3.6 score involvements) showcases his offensive impact. Facing Fremantle's defense, who have shown vulnerabilities, Read's 17.8% edge on the model's prediction makes this bet enticing. His L5 stats, including 1.6 marks inside 50, support his goal-scoring potential. With the odds favoring him to snag a goal, betting on Read to score anytime seems like a smart move.
Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Dylan Moore's recent away game stats show he averages 18.4 disposals, with a solid L5 average against the upcoming opponent of 17.8 disposals. His overall L5 disposals average is even higher at 23.2. The model predicts him to reach 22.4 disposals, indicating a potential 17.8% edge over the line of 19.5. Moore's consistent performance, coupled with his ability to exceed the line against this opponent, makes betting on him to surpass 19.5 disposals a strong choice for this matchup against the Greater Western Sydney Giants.
Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Dylan Moore is poised to surpass 19.5 disposals against GWS based on his recent form. With a model prediction of 22.4 disposals and a solid 17.8% edge, Moore's L5 stats show he averages 18.4 disposals in away games and has hit rates of 4/6 in his last matches. Facing GWS, he historically averages 17.8 disposals away and 19.2 overall, indicating potential for exceeding the line. Moore's balanced mix of contested (5.6 avg) and uncontested possessions (12.6 avg) alongside efficient disposal rates (64.3%) bodes well for him to eclipse the set mark. Expect Moore to maintain his recent form and contribute significantly in the upcoming clash.
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