Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Saturday 09/27 (Jhye Clark Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

Jack Martin is poised to shine in disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With a solid L5 average of 13.8 disposals in home games and a promising 16.5 disposals against this opponent, Martin's recent form is robust. His 17.9% model edge and the model predicting 14.2 disposals, well above the line of 11.5, indicate a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations. Despite a recent hit rate of 4/5 in overall disposals, including an average of 9 uncontested possessions, Martin's all-around game should see him comfortably surpass the line in this pivotal clash.

Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats) Over 15.5 Disposals (-114)

Shaun Mannagh is poised to exceed 15.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG based on his strong statistical trends. With a model predicting 18.3 disposals and a significant 17.9% edge, Mannagh's recent form supports this bet. In his last five home games, he has averaged 20 disposals, showcasing consistent performance. Moreover, Mannagh's solid disposal efficiency (63.0%) and ability to cover ground (436.8 meters gained) enhance his chances of surpassing the line. Despite facing the Lions' defense, which he averages 13.3 disposals against, Mannagh's overall average of 17.4 disposals further reinforces his capability to meet this target. With a reliable hit rate in home games and consistent overall form, Mannagh is primed to deliver in this matchup.

Brad Close (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-116)

Brad Close is a solid bet to score anytime against the Brisbane Lions. With an average of 0.8 goals in his last five home games and facing an opponent he typically scores against, Close's recent form and consistency make him a reliable choice. His high score involvements (8.6) and shots at goal (3) indicate he is actively involved in Geelong's attacking plays. Additionally, his above-average goal accuracy at home (28.3%) boosts his chances of splitting the middle. Considering his recent performance and the model's prediction of 0.9 goals with a strong 17.9% edge, Close is poised to snag a goal in this matchup at the MCG.

Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) Over 1.5 Goals (-400)

Jeremy Cameron's recent performance, especially at home, indicates a strong likelihood of him surpassing 1.5 goals against the Brisbane Lions. With an average of 4 goals in his last 5 home games and a high goal accuracy of 58.3%, Cameron consistently makes his shots count. His ability to take marks inside 50 (4 per game on average) and be involved in scoring plays (8.2 score involvements per game) positions him as a key offensive threat. Additionally, his current hit streak of 7 at home and 3 overall showcases his form and goal-scoring consistency. Considering his strong stats and trend, backing Cameron to score over 1.5 goals is a sound bet for this matchup.

Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-256)

Hugh McCluggage's recent form, especially in away games, supports betting on him to surpass 19.5 disposals against Geelong. With a model-predicted average of 25.7 disposals and a solid standard deviation of 5, McCluggage's consistency stands out. His L5 stats show he averages 28.2 disposals in away games and has hit rates of 18/20 in recent away matches. Against Geelong specifically, he averages 20.4 disposals. Additionally, his overall disposals average of 28.8 and high disposalefficiency of 68.6% further indicate his capability to exceed the set line. With a model edge of 17.4% and McCluggage's current hit streaks, this bet on him to go over 19.5 disposals seems well-founded.