Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) Over 1.5 Goals (-333)
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Jeremy Cameron is a standout pick to go Over 1.5 goals against Hawthorn at the MCG. With a model predicting him to score 2.9 goals, indicating a strong 19.5% edge, his recent form backs this up. In his last 5 home games, Cameron has averaged an impressive 4.2 goals, showing consistency and a high goal-scoring rate. Additionally, his accuracy inside 50, averaging 54.3%, and a solid 5.2 marks inside 50 per game suggest he is well-positioned to snag multiple goals. His current hit streak of 6 at home and 2 overall, combined with a 6/6 home games hit rate, further solidify his goal-scoring potential, making the Over 1.5 goals bet on Jeremy Cameron a strong choice.
Jack Bowes (Geelong Cats) Under 15.5 Disposals (-114)
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Jack Bowes is likely to fall under 15.5 disposals against Hawthorn due to his recent performance. With a model prediction of 12.6 and an 18.8% edge, Bowes has been averaging 17.2 disposals in his last 5 home games, slightly below the line. His recent form against Hawthorn also suggests a lower average of 16.5 disposals, strengthening the under bet. Additionally, his turnovers are minimal at 1.4 on average, indicating good possession retention. With a solid contested possessions average of 6.8, Bowes may focus more on quality over quantity in this matchup, making the under 15.5 disposals a favorable bet.
Oisin Mullin (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Oisin Mullin is poised to exceed the 9.5 disposals line against Hawthorn at MCG. With a model prediction of 12.4 disposals, indicating an 18.6% edge, Mullin's recent form supports this bet. Averaging 9.2 disposals in his last five home games and 15 disposals against this opponent, Mullin consistently meets or surpasses the proposed line. His solid disposalefficiency of 79.8% and significant metresgained of 151.6 further strengthen his potential to exceed expectations. While his turnover rate sits low at 1.2, his knack for contested possessions and intercepts bodes well for this over bet. Mullin's upward trend in overall hit rates, despite his current streak, adds conviction to this wager.
Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-112)
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Hugh McCluggage's recent performance, especially in away games, supports betting on him to go under 27.5 disposals. Despite averaging 24.4 disposals in his last five away games, his recent stats against Collingwood show he's slightly below the line at 25.2 disposals. Additionally, his overall average disposals of 27.4 fall just below the line. With a model prediction of 24.7 disposals and a 18.4% edge, McCluggage's recent form, including turnovers and uncontested possessions, suggests he may not reach the higher line of 27.5 disposals in this matchup. His hit rates and trends also indicate a potential to stay under this mark.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Under 16.5 Disposals (-125)
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Patrick Dangerfield's recent L5 home performances show an average of 17 disposals, with a lower average against Hawthorn specifically. Despite his overall season average exceeding 16.5 disposals, his L5 stats against Hawthorn and the model's prediction of 13.3, backed by a 18.3% edge, suggest he may fall short in this match. With his L5 contested possessions of 10.6 and recent trend of turnovers, the under 16.5 disposals bet for Dangerfield, playing on home turf, seems well-supported by both recent form and matchup dynamics.
Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) Over 24.5 Disposals (-286)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bailey Smith's recent form, averaging 26.8 disposals in his last five home games with a strong 74.1% implied probability, supports betting over 24.5 disposals. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he averaged 23.5 disposals in their last five encounters, he's predicted by the model to reach 31 disposals, showing a promising 16.4% edge. With solid averages in contested possessions (9), kicks (16.8), and metres gained (531.4) in home games, Smith's consistent performance and high hit rates (8/10 in the last 10 home games, 18/20 overall) make this bet on him surpassing 24.5 disposals a compelling choice for the upcoming game at the MCG.
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