Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Saturday 04/04 (Austin Reaves Highlights): Finding the Edge

As the Lakers roll into Dallas, Austin Reaves finds himself in a challenging position. Historically, his numbers take a dip when playing away, and recent trends underscore this. Over his last five games on the road, he's averaging just 21.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. That's significantly under the combined total we're targeting.Against the Mavericks, Reaves has managed just 13 points per game on their turf, and his assist numbers plummet to an average of 2.8. Given that he's been under 41.5 in all of his last 10 outings, this matchup feels ripe for another low output. The Mavericks have a strong defense, and with Reaves' performance against them trending downward, the under on 41.5 points, rebounds, and assists seems like a prudent choice. The numbers align, and the narrative points to a tough night for Reaves.

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 28.5 Points (-102)

As the Lakers head into Dallas, targeting Austin Reaves for under 28.5 points is a sound play. Despite his impressive recent performances, where he's averaged around 20.8 points overall and 21.6 points away, Reaves has faced the Mavericks in the past with notably less success-scoring just 13 points on average in their last few matchups on the road. This trend suggests that Dallas knows how to stifle his scoring. Not to mention, he's on a streak of hitting the under away from home, with an unblemished record of 13 straight games. With the Mavericks likely tightening their defense, it's tough to envision Reaves breaking through this time. Given these factors, betting on him to stay below that 28.5 mark feels like a wise move.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 24.5 Rebounds + Assists (-114)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the San Antonio Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic. While he's undoubtedly a stat-stuffer, there's a compelling case to look for him to fall under 24.5 combined rebounds and assists. Over his last five games, he's averaged a notable 30.6 combined, but those numbers dip at home where he's been clocking in just 26.4.The Spurs have done a decent job limiting elite players, and historically, Jokic's numbers against them reflect that, with averages of 12 rebounds and 10.6 assists. Dig deeper, and you'll find that his last eleven home games resulted in under 24.5 in nearly half, hitting this mark just six times. Given the Spurs' defensive strategy and Jokic's recent home performance, this trend could very well continue. Expect a calculated approach from Jokic, and let's capitalize on the under.

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 34.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)

As the Lakers gear up to face the Mavericks, Austin Reaves finds himself under the spotlight for a points and rebounds prop bet that seems ripe for the under. Despite his impressive averages of 20.8 points and 4.4 rebounds over the last five games, when you scrutinize his away performances, the numbers tell a different story. He's averaging just 21.6 points and 3.8 rebounds on the road, and when matched against Dallas, his numbers dip dramatically; he's only managed 13 points and 3.4 rebounds in their last away encounter. With a perfect record of hitting the under in his last 13 away games, it's clear that Reaves struggles to shine outside of the comfort of home. Given the Mavericks' defensive prowess, betting the under on Reaves at 34.5 looks not only wise but backed by solid data.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 10.5 Assists (+110)

As the Nuggets prepare to host the Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but this might be a classic case of the under hitting. While Jokic dazzles with an impressive average of 13.6 assists over his last five games, the matchup against San Antonio tells a different story. Historically, when facing the Spurs at home, he's only dished out about 8.8 assists. It's clear that defenses tighten when the stakes are high, and San Antonio's ability to limit his playmaking can't be overlooked.Moreover, with an expected stat value of just under 9 assists, the under on 10.5 feels like the safer play. The Nuggets may lean more on their scoring efficiency rather than Jokic's facilitation. As thrilling as he can be, this matchup could see him focusing more on scoring than playmaking, making the under a savvy choice for this game.