Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 04/16 (Moussa Diabate Highlights): Smart Player Wagers

As the Charlotte Hornets take on the Orlando Magic, all eyes will be on Moussa Diabate, but the smart play here is to consider the under on his rebounds at 10.5. Diabate has shown flashes of brilliance, averaging 8.6 boards over his last five games. However, when you zoom in on his away performance, that number dips to 8, and against the Magic, he's averaged just 7 rebounds in their recent matchups. With an expected value of around 7.93 and a hit rate of just 5 out of his last 6 games going under this line, the numbers suggest he's likely to fall short again. Particularly when playing away, he's been consistent in hitting the under. Given the matchup and his recent trends, taking the under on Diabate's rebounds feels like a savvy move.

Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Under 6.5 Assists (-127)

As the Warriors roll into Phoenix, all eyes will be on Draymond Green, but betting the under on his assists at 6.5 could be the smart move. Sure, he's averaged a solid 8 assists over his last five games, but let's dig deeper. When playing away, Draymond's contributions have dipped to 6.6 assists per game, and against the Suns specifically, he's averaged just 3.4 assists in their past encounters. This matchup isn't just about Green; it's also about the Warriors' evolving offense, where he may not need to be the primary facilitator. With a hit rate of 5 out of 7 on the road for staying under this number, the odds seem to favor a quieter night for Draymond in the assist column. Given all this, a bet on the under feels like a calculated play as he navigates this challenging environment.

Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors) Under 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-127)

Gui Santos has been a solid contributor for the Warriors, but as they gear up to face the Suns, it's worth considering the under on his combined points and rebounds at 18.5. Over the last five games, Santos has averaged just 14.8 points and 4.8 rebounds, falling short of this mark more often than not. When playing away, he's even less impactful, posting averages of 11.8 points and 6.4 rebounds. Against the Suns, he's averaged only 7.2 points per game, and his away performances dip further to 8.2 points. With a hit rate of just 67% in his last three games and facing a Suns team that excels defensively, it's tough to see him breaking through this threshold. Given the context and his recent struggles, the under seems like a savvy bet.

Desmond Bane (Orlando Magic) Under 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)

As the Orlando Magic prepare to host the Charlotte Hornets, all eyes will be on Desmond Bane. However, betting on him to go under 26.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists seems like a savvy play. Over his last five games, he's averaged just 17.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 3 assists, well below that threshold. Even when we look at his home performance, where he typically shines, his averages settle at 20.2 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists. Against the Hornets, he's logged just 16.2 points at home, and his overall numbers against them suggest a potential struggle. With a hit rate of just 2 out of his last 3 games on this prop, it's clear that Bane might face challenges surpassing that 26.5 mark. With the odds reflecting a 51.3% implied probability, this under bet could be worth a solid wager

Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors) Under 12.5 Points (-106)

As the Golden State Warriors gear up to face the Phoenix Suns, all eyes will be on Gui Santos, but betting on him to surpass 12.5 points might not be the wisest choice. Despite a promising average of 14.8 points in his last five games, his away performances tell a different story, where he's managed just 11.8 points on average. Even more concerning is his history against the Suns, where he's only averaged 8.2 points in their recent clashes, showcasing a clear struggle against this opponent. With a solid 3-for-4 hit rate on the under in away games, it seems Santos often finds himself limited outside the comfort of home. Given these trends, betting the under on Santos feels like a savvy move, especially with an expected stat value of just 8.08 points. Look for him to fall short of that 12.5 mark in what could be a defensive showdown.