Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Sunday 04/05 (5-Leg) Featuring Nikola Jokic!: High Probability Plays

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to host the San Antonio Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic. While the reigning MVP dazzles with his playmaking skills, we're betting on him to fall under 12.5 assists. Despite his impressive average of 13.6 assists over the last five games, things shift when he faces the Spurs, where he's averaged just 10.6 assists in their recent matchups and a mere 8.8 assists at home against them. Jokic's style thrives on team dynamics, and with the Spurs likely focusing on limiting his distribution, he might find himself scoring more than playmaking. The trend of hitting the under is reinforced as he hasn't surpassed the mark in his last three games against them, making this a calculated play. With the implied probability sitting around 76.9%, this feels like a smart wager as Jokic navigates the court.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 16.5 Rebounds (-500)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the San Antonio Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but don't be surprised if he falls short on the boards. While he's averaged 17 rebounds over his last five games, his home performance tells a different story. Jokic has pulled down just 14.6 boards at the Ball Arena recently. Even against the Spurs, who he's averaged 12 rebounds against at home, the pressure of a matchup with a young, energetic San Antonio squad could limit his opportunities.Notably, Jokic has hit the under on this rebounding prop in 19 of his last 20 home games, and considering his expected stat value sits at just 12.35, betting on the under 16.5 rebounds seems like a savvy move. With an implied probability of 83.3%, it feels like the smart play to fade the reigning MVP in this matchup.

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 36.5 Points + Assists (-112)

In Sunday's showdown between the Mavericks and the Lakers, targeting Austin Reaves for under 36.5 points and assists makes a lot of sense. While Reaves has been a bright spot for the Lakers lately, averaging 21.6 points and 4.6 assists on the road, his recent performances against Dallas tell a different story. In their last five matchups, he's struggled to hit the mark, averaging just 13 points and 2.8 assists when playing away against this very opponent. With a hit rate of 10 for 10 over his last ten games, the pressure might be getting to him in hostile territory. Plus, considering his overall performance this season and the Mavs' ability to clamp down defensively, it's reasonable to expect he'll fall short of that lofty total. With the numbers leaning heavily towards the under, this bet feels like a solid play for Sunday.

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)

As we gear up for the Lakers' clash with the Mavericks, Austin Reaves presents an intriguing betting opportunity. The line is set at 41.5 for points, rebounds, and assists combined, and it's worth considering the under. Over his last five games, Reaves has averaged 20.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, which totals around 30.29-well below our target. When hitting the road, his production dips further, with averages of 21.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. Historically, he struggles against the Mavericks, posting just 13 points and 3.4 rebounds when playing away. The trend is even clearer in his last 13 away games, where he has failed to reach this threshold every single time. Given these numbers, taking the under seems like a smart move as Reaves might find it tough to shine in Dallas.