Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns) Over 0.5 Threes Made (-714)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Devin Booker's stats from recent games give a strong indication that he's likely to make at least one three-point field goal in the upcoming game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Over his last five games, he's averaged 1.4 three-point field goals overall and even more impressively, he's averaged 2 when playing away. This suggests that he performs even better when not playing on his home court. Additionally, his average three-point field goals made against the Oklahoma City Thunder, both home and away, is 0.8. Given that the bet is for him to make over 0.5 three-point field goals, all these stats point towards this being a good bet. It's also worth noting that the model predicts an 87.7% probability for this outcome, reinforcing the likelihood of this bet being successful.
Jalen Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-125)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Jalen Williams over 24.5 points + assists in the upcoming game between Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns is supported by his recent performance statistics. Over his last five games, Williams' average overall points (25.8) and assists (3) total 28.8, which is well above the proposed 24.5 threshold. This trend holds true even when considering only home games, with an average of 23 points and 4.8 assists, totaling 27.8. Although his average points (12) and assists (3.4) against Phoenix Suns at home are slightly lower, they still add up to 15.4. Given that our model expects his stat value to be 28.67 for this game, there's a strong statistical case for this bet. It's also worth noting that Williams has exceeded the 24.5 points + assists line in 3 out of his last 5 games, indicating a 60% recent
Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Statistically, Chet Holmgren's average combined points, rebounds, and assists falls below the under point of 28.5. Looking at his recent performances, his last five home games resulted in an average combined score of 21.8, which is significantly lower than the proposed outcome point. Even when considering his performances against the Suns, his combined average is 26, still below the under point. Also, his overall hit rate in the last three games and home hit rate in the last four games are perfect, which shows a consistent performance that is below the under point. Particularly noteworthy is his low assists average, both overall and at home, which further limits his ability to reach the under point. Based on these statistics, betting under 28.5 for Holmgren's points, rebounds, and assists is a reasonable choice.
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