Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Statistically, Chet Holmgren's average combined points, rebounds, and assists falls below the under point of 28.5. Looking at his recent performances, his last five home games resulted in an average combined score of 21.8, which is significantly lower than the proposed outcome point. Even when considering his performances against the Suns, his combined average is 26, still below the under point. Also, his overall hit rate in the last three games and home hit rate in the last four games are perfect, which shows a consistent performance that is below the under point. Particularly noteworthy is his low assists average, both overall and at home, which further limits his ability to reach the under point. Based on these statistics, betting under 28.5 for Holmgren's points, rebounds, and assists is a reasonable choice.
Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-118)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Chet Holmgren for Under 26.5 points and rebounds in the Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns game is driven by his recent performance data. Holmgren's last five overall stats show an average of 13 points and 10 rebounds per game, totaling 23, which is well below the outcome point of 26.5. Even when considering his home performance, with averages of 14 points and 7.6 rebounds, the combined total is still under the set mark. Furthermore, his stats against the Phoenix Suns, both overall and at home, also fall short of the target outcome point. His reliability in hitting the under is also validated by a 100% hit rate in his last three overall games and last four home games. This suggests a pattern of consistently lower scoring and rebounding that supports the Under 26.5 bet.
Jalen Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-125)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Jalen Williams over 24.5 points + assists in the upcoming game between Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns is supported by his recent performance statistics. Over his last five games, Williams' average overall points (25.8) and assists (3) total 28.8, which is well above the proposed 24.5 threshold. This trend holds true even when considering only home games, with an average of 23 points and 4.8 assists, totaling 27.8. Although his average points (12) and assists (3.4) against Phoenix Suns at home are slightly lower, they still add up to 15.4. Given that our model expects his stat value to be 28.67 for this game, there's a strong statistical case for this bet. It's also worth noting that Williams has exceeded the 24.5 points + assists line in 3 out of his last 5 games, indicating a 60% recent
Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns) Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Devin Booker's recent performance, particularly in away games, supports the bet for Over 33.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists. Over his last five away games, he has averaged 28.6 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists, which totals 40.6, significantly above the outcome point of 33.5. His overall hit rate in the last 9 games is 6/9, and his away hit rate in the last 3 games is perfect at 3/3. While his averages against the Oklahoma City Thunder are slightly lower, they still exceed the outcome point at 30.6. The expected stat value of 37.95 further bolsters the rationale for this bet. Therefore, based on Booker's recent performance and his stats against the Thunder, betting over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists is statistically justified.
Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns) Over 0.5 Threes Made (-714)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Devin Booker's stats from recent games give a strong indication that he's likely to make at least one three-point field goal in the upcoming game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Over his last five games, he's averaged 1.4 three-point field goals overall and even more impressively, he's averaged 2 when playing away. This suggests that he performs even better when not playing on his home court. Additionally, his average three-point field goals made against the Oklahoma City Thunder, both home and away, is 0.8. Given that the bet is for him to make over 0.5 three-point field goals, all these stats point towards this being a good bet. It's also worth noting that the model predicts an 87.7% probability for this outcome, reinforcing the likelihood of this bet being successful.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go over 10.5 combined rebounds and assists is supported by several key statistics. In his last 5 home games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 4.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists, which totals to an impressive 13 combined. This is well above the 10.5 line set by the bookmaker. Additionally, his average rebounds and assists against the Suns, regardless of venue, are 6.4 and 5.4 respectively, still comfortably over the target. Moreover, he has a strong record of hitting the over in recent games, doing so in 14 out of his last 20 appearances overall and achieving it in his last 3 home games. This consistent performance underscores the reliability of this bet. The expected stat value of 11.68 further solidifies the over 10.5 bet for Gilgeous-Alexander's combined rebounds and assists.
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