Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Prediction & Picks (Marvin Bagley III Key Factor): Full Breakdown & Bets

As the Warriors gear up to face the Mavericks in Dallas, all eyes will be on Draymond Green, but betting on him to hit over 1.5 threes seems like a risky play. Despite his ability to stretch the floor, Green's away performance tells a different story. He's made just 0.2 threes per game against Dallas when playing on the road, which starkly contrasts his recent overall average of 2. While his last 12 games show a respectable hit rate of 8 out of 12, those numbers dwindle when he's away from the Bay, with 10 of his last 14 outings landing under this line. The Mavericks defense will focus on shutting him down, so expecting him to find his rhythm from beyond the arc at this venue feels like a gamble. With an expected stat value of only 1.35, taking the under on Green's threes made is the savvy move here.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 9.5 Rebounds (-417)

As the Dallas Mavericks gear up to face the Golden State Warriors, all eyes should be on Cooper Flagg's rebounding output, particularly with the line set at 9.5. While Flagg has shown flashes of brilliance, his recent numbers suggest a different story. Averaging just 6.6 rebounds over his last five games, he's not quite the glass-cleaner we might hope for. Even in the comfort of home, where he puts up 7 boards on average, the Warriors' unique style could limit his opportunities. Historically, Flagg has snagged around 8.5 against Golden State, but that number dips to just 6.23 when you consider his expected value in this matchup. With a hit rate of 12 out of 14 for the under recently, there's a strong case to believe that tonight won't be the night he breaks through that 9.5 mark.