Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies : Over 0.5 alternate_team_totals (-1111)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on 'Miami Marlins Over 0.5' for the Team Total Runs is a sound choice, given the statistical performance data. The model predicts the Marlins to score 5.79 runs, significantly more than the 0.5 line. Despite their recent home performance being less impressive, they have a winning record against the Phillies, with a 3-2 in their last 5 encounters. Furthermore, the Phillies have been giving up an average of 5.8 runs in their last 5 games, indicating a weaker defense. This, coupled with the Marlins' average batting hits of 4.8 in their last 5 games, suggests a high likelihood of the Marlins scoring more than 0.5 runs. The increased average pitcher base on balls by the Phillies also gives more opportunities for the Marlins to score. Overall, these factors make this bet a statistically sound choice.
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies : Under 8.5 alternate_team_totals (-833)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on 'Philadelphia Phillies Under 8.5' for the Team Total Runs is a sound choice based on the Phillies' recent performance and the Marlins' defensive record. The Phillies' away games average run score is significantly lower at 1.8 compared to their overall average of 5.6. This indicates a struggle to score when playing away. Furthermore, their average batting hits drop to 5.8 in away games, compared to an overall average of 10.2, further supporting the trend of underperformance in away games. On the other hand, the Marlins have a strong defensive record at home, allowing an average of only 2.8 runs in their last five home games. This suggests that the Marlins' defense is likely to suppress the Phillies' scoring, making the Under 8.5 bet a statistically sound choice.
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies : Over 5.5 Total Runs (-333)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The 'Over 5.5' bet for the Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies game is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, the Phillies have a strong recent scoring record, averaging 5.6 runs in their last five games. Secondly, the Marlins have been allowing an average of 3.6 runs in their last five games, indicating potential for high scoring from the Phillies. Additionally, the Phillies have been hitting well, with an average of 10.2 hits in their last five games, which could translate into further runs. Lastly, the Marlins' home performance hasn't been strong, with a 1-4 record and an average of only 1.4 runs scored per game. This suggests they may need to score more to compete, pushing the total run count higher. These factors combined suggest a high likelihood of the game exceeding 5.5 total runs.
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